Jake Riccardi (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jake Riccardi is one of the more reliable goal scorers in the competition when he's at home, and the numbers back that up convincingly. He's averaging 1.8 goals per game across his last five home fixtures, generating 2.4 shots at goal and converting at a tidy 61.7% clip — well above what you'd need to clear a 0.5 line with confidence. That home hit rate of 7 from 8 over the past two months is the headline figure here, and it's not built on luck: 1.2 marks inside 50 and 3.2 inside 50s per game at ENGIE Stadium show he's consistently getting into dangerous positions. The model projects 1.2 goals, sitting comfortably above the line, and the 5.3% edge against the 71.9% implied probability at $1.39 is a genuine margin worth taking. West Coast concedes regularly to key forwards, and Riccardi's form at home makes this a well-supported play.

Jake Riccardi (GWS GIANTS) Over 9.5 Disposals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Riccardi shapes as a solid over play here, with the model projecting 12 disposals against a line of 9.5 — a 2.5-disposal buffer that generates a 3.3% edge against the 68% implied probability baked into the $1.47 price. The key driver is his home-ground form: across his last five home games, Riccardi is averaging 11 disposals, comfortably clearing this line, and that figure jumps to 13.7 when specifically facing West Coast. His home disposal profile leans heavily on uncontested ball (8.4 per game) and a solid 6.4 kicks per game at 72.8% efficiency — numbers that suggest he finds space at ENGIE Stadium and uses it well, racking up 193 metres gained per game at home versus just 135.8 overall. West Coast's defensive structure has historically allowed Riccardi to accumulate, and playing on familiar turf only amplifies that. The numbers point clearly over.

Jake Riccardi (GWS GIANTS) Over 10.5 Disposals (-149)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Riccardi is a compelling over play here, with the model projecting 12 disposals against a line of 10.5 — a 3.2% edge at $1.67. The home context is doing a lot of heavy lifting: his L5 home average sits at 11 disposals, already clearing the line, and against West Coast specifically he's averaged 13.7 at home across his last five matchups. That's a meaningful opponent-specific bump that suggests the Eagles' defensive structure suits his work patterns. Dig into the underlying numbers and the picture sharpens. His home kicks (6.4) and uncontested possessions (8.4) point to a player who finds ball in space at ENGIE Stadium, generating 193 metres gained per game. He's hit this line in five of his last eight home games, and the 59.9% implied probability looks undercooked given that form. Solid edge worth backing at these odds.

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