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The latest Bet Better model pick for Toby Bedford is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 69%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +13.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 9:31PM UTC
AFL

Toby Bedford

GWS GIANTS

+13.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -123 (1.81) · $100→$181
+13.3% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
68.5%
Implied Probability
55.2%
Model Edge
+13.3%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals68.5%—55.2%1.46+13.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games1/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Toby Bedford (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-123)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding a player who knows how to find the big sticks, Toby Bedford of the Greater Western Sydney Giants stands out as a reliable choice. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last five away games and a stellar goal accuracy of 90%, Bedford has been a consistent scoring threat. Additionally, his ability to get involved in the attacking plays is evident, with an average of 5.4 score involvements per game. Facing St Kilda, where he has averaged 1 goal in their previous encounters, Bedford is poised to make his mark on the scoreboard once again. With a current hitting streak of 6 away games and a solid overall hit rate, backing Bedford to score over 0.5 goals in this matchup at Marvel Stadium seems like a smart play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Toby Bedford averaged 11.7 disposals, 0.4 goals and 1.8 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

11.7
Disposals
0.4
Goals
1.8
Marks
6.1
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Toby Bedford has cleared 10.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.590%
o11.590%
o13.580%
o14.560%
o16.540%
o17.530%
o19.530%
o21.520%
o22.520%
o24.510%
o25.50%
o27.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Toby Bedford is averaging 16.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.4
Disp · Overall
0.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Toby Bedford recorded 13 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Sep 24Brisbane Lions130210
17 Aug 24Fremantle100110
10 Aug 24Brisbane Lions11016
4 Aug 24Hawthorn8013
27 Jul 24Melbourne17136
20 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS150114
14 Jul 24Richmond131213
6 Jul 24Carlton16116
29 Jun 24Adelaide Crows11024
22 Jun 24Sydney Swans18019
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -123 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -149 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Toby Bedford (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Toby Bedford is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.3% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 14 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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