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The latest Bet Better model pick for Toby Bedford is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 69%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +13.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL

Toby Bedford

GWS GIANTS

+13.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -123 (1.81)
+13.3% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 14 Jun, 5:15AM
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Model Probability
68.5%
Implied Probability
55.2%
Model Edge
+13.3%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals68.5%—55.2%1.46+13.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Toby Bedford (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-123)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to finding a player who knows how to find the big sticks, Toby Bedford of the Greater Western Sydney Giants stands out as a reliable choice. With an average of 1.4 goals in his last five away games and a stellar goal accuracy of 90%, Bedford has been a consistent scoring threat. Additionally, his ability to get involved in the attacking plays is evident, with an average of 5.4 score involvements per game. Facing St Kilda, where he has averaged 1 goal in their previous encounters, Bedford is poised to make his mark on the scoreboard once again. With a current hitting streak of 6 away games and a solid overall hit rate, backing Bedford to score over 0.5 goals in this matchup at Marvel Stadium seems like a smart play.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 0.5
0.6avg goals L5
Away1vs Essendon0.8Season best2
O 0.560%
O 1.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.3 · hi 1 · lo 0
0011010000

Toby Bedford has gone over 0.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.6 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -123 ✓ HIT
17 Apr 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Sydney Swans Goals 0.5 Over -149 ✓ HIT
12 Apr 26 Richmond Tigers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 0.5 Over -143 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Toby Bedford (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Toby Bedford is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.3% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 14 June at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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