Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 12.5 Assists (-323)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

In Thursday's matchup, Nikola Jokic faces the Memphis Grizzlies at home, and betting on him to stay under 12.5 assists seems prudent. While Jokic is renowned for his playmaking, recent trends tell a different story. Over his last five games, he's averaged 11.6 assists, which is already shy of the mark we're targeting. Even more telling is his home performance-though he typically shines at the Ball Arena with 13 assists, against Memphis, his numbers dip to around 10.4. The Grizzlies are a tough opponent defensively, limiting playmakers effectively, and Jokic's assist average against them has been a modest 10.8. With an expected stat value of just 8.68 in this context and a high implied probability of 76.3% for the under, it feels wise to back this trend. In a game where every possession counts, Jokic may be more focused on scoring than distributing, making the

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Under 26.5 Rebounds + Assists (-278)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Denver Nuggets host the Memphis Grizzlies, all eyes will be on Nikola Jokic, but the smart play may just be on him falling short of that 26.5 rebounds and assists mark. While Jokic has been a stat-stuffing machine, averaging 13.8 rebounds and 11.6 assists over his last five games, his production at home against Memphis tells a different story. In their recent matchups, he's averaged a more modest 14.8 rebounds and 10.4 assists, indicating that the Grizzlies have a knack for clamping down on his contributions.With a solid hit rate at home, having gone under this total 13 of 17 times, the odds seem to favor a slight dip in his output. The projected stat value of 20.26 suggests that he might not reach that lofty 26.5 threshold. In a game where he can still shine, it might be wise to bet on Jokic to stay under

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets) Over 21.5 Points (-208)

Odds available at fanduel at time of publishing

As the Nuggets prepare to host the Grizzlies, all eyes should be on Nikola Jokic. The reigning MVP is on a scoring tear, averaging nearly 30 points over his last five games. More impressively, he's been a scoring machine at home, racking up over 31 points per game in his last five home outings. The matchup against Memphis is particularly favorable; Jokic has averaged 25 points against them at home, comfortably exceeding tonight's mark of 21.5. With a hit rate of 9 out of his last 10 games, including a perfect 7-for-7 at home, it's clear that he's not just hitting this line; he's demolishing it. Given his current form and the Grizzlies' struggles to contain elite offensive players, backing Jokic to go over 21.5 points feels like a smart move. Expect him to shine in front of the home crowd once again!

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