Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders : Under 50.5 Total Points (-112)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on the Under 50.5 for this NFL matchup is supported by compelling statistical data. The home team has averaged only 22 points scored over their last five games, while allowing a substantial 30.6 points, indicating a high-scoring defensive struggle. However, their average scoring at home drops to 23 points, with an even larger gap in point differential (-5.8). The away team has also struggled offensively, averaging just 23.2 points while allowing 24.2 points. Their away scoring dips further to 17.6 points, suggesting a trend of low offensive output in hostile environments. Moreover, both teams display low explosive play rates (home: 0.228; away: 0.223), contributing to limited scoring opportunities. The home team's negative EPA (Expected Points Added) in both passing and rushing supports the notion of a defensive battle, reinforcing the likelihood that the game will remain below the 50.5 total.

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders: Moneyline (+180)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on the Washington Commanders in the head-to-head (h2h) market shows statistical promise based on recent performance metrics. While the Commanders have struggled overall, evidenced by a 1-4 record in their last five games and a negative point differential (-8.6), they have exhibited a competitive edge against their recent opponents, holding a 4-1 record in the last five matchups. Their EPA (Expected Points Added) metrics indicate a concerning defensive performance, allowing 16.84 EPA against, but their offensive EPA of 6.64 suggests potential for scoring. Comparatively, the away team has a marginally better record (2-3) but struggles offensively with only 23.2 points scored per game. The Commanders, despite recent form, have demonstrated resilience against similar competition, making them a viable bet in this matchup. The model edge of 0.03 further supports backing Washington in this scenario.

Jonathan Mingo (DAL) Yes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1200)

Odds available at draftkings at time of publishing

Betting on Jonathan Mingo to score an anytime touchdown against the Washington Commanders appears risky given his historical performance. Mingo has not scored a touchdown in his last 35 opportunities, which includes 16 home games and 3 matchups against Washington. His overall hit rate stands at 0%, with no signs of improvement in recent games-he has failed to score in the last 10, 20, and overall appearances. Despite the model edge of 0.018, which suggests a slight favorability, the overwhelming trend shows Mingo lacking any scoring momentum. The Cowboys' defense has also been strong against opposing receivers, further detracting from Mingo's chances. With his current streak of 0 and a lack of production against Washington, this bet appears highly unlikely to succeed. Therefore, a cautious approach would advise against wagering on Mingo to score a touchdown.

Unlock the rest of this one

You're reading the free preview. One plan unlocks the full article and every pick we back — every league, every day.

Unlock the full article