On Monday 28 September 2026, Chelsea play Bournemouth in the EPL. Our model likes 2 bets here. The one it likes most is Bournemouth Draw No Bet, priced at +250 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Chelsea vs Bournemouth: Bournemouth Draw No Bet (+250)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Chelsea prepares to host Bournemouth, recent form paints a compelling picture for an upset. Chelsea's home record reveals a mixed bag, with just two wins from their last five, averaging two goals per game but conceding 2.4. Their expected goals (xG) stats suggest they might struggle to convert chances against a Bournemouth side that, despite a shaky away record, has shown resilience in tight matches. Bournemouth's last five outings have seen them score 1.4 goals per away match, while Chelsea's defense is not unbreakable, conceding frequently. The Cherries have a strong head-to-head record over the last five encounters, winning two and drawing three. With Chelsea’s inconsistency and Bournemouth's potential to snatch a draw or better, a Draw No Bet on Bournemouth presents an intriguing opportunity, offering solid value in a game where anything can happen.

Chelsea vs Bournemouth: Bournemouth +1.5 Goal Handicap (-250)

Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing

As Chelsea hosts Bournemouth, the recent form of both teams paints an intriguing picture. Chelsea has struggled at home, managing only two wins in their last five outings. Meanwhile, Bournemouth, despite their own challenges, has shown resilience, especially with a more balanced away performance (two wins in their last five). The Cherries have averaged 1.4 goals in away games, which gives them a fighting chance against a Chelsea defense allowing an average of two goals at home. Chelsea's xG is stagnant, hinting at a lack of creativity, while Bournemouth’s attack is beginning to stir. Given that the Blues have often fallen short against Bournemouth in recent matchups, there’s a good chance the visitors can keep the scoreline respectable. With the handicap set at 1.5, Bournemouth presents a compelling wager to at least cover the spread.

That is how our model reads Chelsea v Bournemouth. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

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