Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zak Jones is Under 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 70%, versus the book's implied 53%, for a model edge of +17.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:06PM UTC
AFL

Zak Jones

St Kilda

+17.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 17.5 -112 (1.89)
+17.5% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 24 Aug, 2:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.4%
Implied Probability
52.9%
Model Edge
+17.5%
Predicted Value
14.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.4%—52.9%1.42+17.5%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Zak Jones (St Kilda) Under 17.5 Disposals (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Zak Jones is poised to fall below 17.5 disposals against the GWS Giants due to his recent away game trends. With a model prediction of 14.8, Jones averages 14.4 disposals away, lower than the line. His current form shows consistency with 5 hits in the last 6 away games. The model's 17.5% edge strengthens the argument against Jones reaching the disposal line. Despite his overall 3-hit streak, his recent performances against the upcoming opponent and in away games suggest he might struggle to meet the line. With a solid L5 average of 14.4 disposals away and an inconsistent trend against the Giants, betting on Jones to stay under 17.5 disposals presents a favorable opportunity.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
16.5avg disposals recent
Season best26
Disposals last 10avg 16.5 · hi 26 · lo 6
76920262216192119

Zak Jones has a disposals high of 26 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Zak Jones (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zak Jones is Under 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.5% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 24 August at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks