Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Zak Jones is Under 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 53%, edge +17.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 7:32PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Under 17.5
-112 (1.89) · $100→$189
+17.5% Edge
St Kilda Saints
@
Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 24 Aug, 2:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 19°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
70 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 70.4% · the book's price implies 52.9% · gap +17.5%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 70.4% | — | 52.9% | 1.42 | +17.5% |
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Zak Jones (St Kilda) Under 17.5 Disposals (-112)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Zak Jones is poised to fall below 17.5 disposals against the GWS Giants due to his recent away game trends. With a model prediction of 14.8, Jones averages 14.4 disposals away, lower than the line. His current form shows consistency with 5 hits in the last 6 away games. The model's 17.5% edge strengthens the argument against Jones reaching the disposal line. Despite his overall 3-hit streak, his recent performances against the upcoming opponent and in away games suggest he might struggle to meet the line. With a solid L5 average of 14.4 disposals away and an inconsistent trend against the Giants, betting on Jones to stay under 17.5 disposals presents a favorable opportunity.
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Season averages (2024)
Zak Jones averaged 15.9 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Zak Jones recorded 19 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 25 Aug 24 | Carlton | 19 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Geelong Cats | 21 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 Aug 24 | Richmond | 19 | 0 | 5 | 4 |
| 4 Aug 24 | Brisbane Lions | 16 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 27 Jul 24 | Essendon | 22 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 20 Jul 24 | West Coast Eagles | 26 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Adelaide Crows | 20 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 Jun 24 | Brisbane Lions | 9 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 May 24 | Fremantle | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 18 Apr 24 | Western Bulldogs | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Zak Jones (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Zak Jones is Under 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.5% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 24 August at ENGIE Stadium, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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