Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Willie Rioli is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 84 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 84%, implied 68%, edge +15.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:44PM UTC
AFL
Willie Rioli
Port Adelaide
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-217 (1.46) · $100→$146
+15.7% Edge
Fremantle Dockers
@
Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 9 Aug, 10:10AM
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How often this wins
84 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 84.2% · the book's price implies 68.5% · gap +15.7%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 84.2% | — | 68.5% | 1.19 | +15.7% |
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Willie Rioli (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-217)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Willie Rioli is a strong pick to score anytime in the Port Adelaide vs. Fremantle matchup. With a solid recent average of 1 goal per game and a 50% goal accuracy at home, Rioli has been consistent in front of the big sticks. His ability to create scoring opportunities is evident with an average of 1.4 inside 50s and 1.2 marks inside 50 in his last 5 home games. Considering his 15.7% model edge and the implied probability of 68.5%, the data suggests that Rioli is in a good position to snag a goal in this game. His recent performance against Fremantle, averaging 1 goal in their last 5 encounters, further supports this bet.
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Season averages (2024)
Willie Rioli averaged 9.6 disposals, 1.7 goals and 2.2 marks per game across 20 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Willie Rioli recorded 7 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 20 Sep 24 | Sydney Swans | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 Sep 24 | Hawthorn | 15 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 Sep 24 | Geelong Cats | 8 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 25 Aug 24 | Fremantle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 Aug 24 | Adelaide Crows | 10 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Melbourne | 6 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 Aug 24 | Sydney Swans | 10 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 26 Jul 24 | Carlton | 13 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 20 Jul 24 | Richmond | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 25 May 24 | North Melbourne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Willie Rioli (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Willie Rioli is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.7% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power on Saturday 9 August at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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