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The latest Bet Better model pick for Willie Rioli is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 84%, versus the book's implied 68%, for a model edge of +15.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:15AM UTC
AFL

Willie Rioli

Port Adelaide

+15.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -217 (1.46)
+15.7% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 9 Aug, 10:10AM
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Model Probability
84.2%
Implied Probability
68.5%
Model Edge
+15.7%
Predicted Value
1.3 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals84.2%—68.5%1.19+15.7%

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AI Analysis

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Willie Rioli (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Willie Rioli is a strong pick to score anytime in the Port Adelaide vs. Fremantle matchup. With a solid recent average of 1 goal per game and a 50% goal accuracy at home, Rioli has been consistent in front of the big sticks. His ability to create scoring opportunities is evident with an average of 1.4 inside 50s and 1.2 marks inside 50 in his last 5 home games. Considering his 15.7% model edge and the implied probability of 68.5%, the data suggests that Rioli is in a good position to snag a goal in this game. His recent performance against Fremantle, averaging 1 goal in their last 5 encounters, further supports this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.6avg goals recent
Season best4
Goals last 10avg 1.6 · hi 4 · lo 0
0214023121

Willie Rioli has a goals high of 4 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Willie Rioli (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Willie Rioli is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +15.7% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Port Adelaide Power on Saturday 9 August at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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