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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jason Horne-Francis is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +4.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:48PM UTC
AFL

Jason Horne-Francis

Port Adelaide

+4.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+4.5% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
93.0%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+4.5%
Predicted Value
23.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals93.0%—88.5%1.08+4.5%

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AI Analysis

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Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) Over 16.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to dependable midfielders, Jason Horne-Francis is the epitome of consistency. His last five away games have seen him average a stellar 23.6 disposals, showcasing his ability to find the footy wherever he plays. Facing the Sydney Swans, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 21 disposals in their previous encounters, sets the stage for another standout performance. Horne-Francis' recent form is red hot, boasting an impressive 8-game hit streak for away fixtures and a flawless 6-game streak overall. With a model prediction of 23.8 disposals and a solid 88.5% implied probability, the Over 16.5 disposals line seems like a safe bet. Expect him to continue his stellar run, racking up possessions and driving Port Adelaide's midfield engine at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
20.8avg disposals recent
Season best28
Disposals last 10avg 20.8 · hi 28 · lo 9
9182327282320181923

Jason Horne-Francis has a disposals high of 28 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
1.2avg goals recent
Season best3
Goals last 10avg 1.2 · hi 2 · lo 0
2011222110

Jason Horne-Francis has a goals high of 3 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 17.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jason Horne-Francis is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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