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AFL

Jason Horne-Francis

Port Adelaide

Value call

Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) has one live pick today: over 20.5 disposals that pays $153 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
75 in 100
Predicted
23.8 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.7% · the book's price implies 65.4% · gap +9.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 4:15 PM AEST
Jason Horne-Francis
over 20.5 disposals
Disposals Over 20.5 -189 (1.53) · $100→$153
Value call
HIGHWins about 75 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$15.30 Odds-189
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jason Horne-Francis is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 75 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 75%, the price says 65%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 8:26PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.7%—65.4%1.34+9.4%

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AI Analysis

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Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) Over 20.5 Disposals (-189)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to rack up the possessions, Jason Horne-Francis stands out as a prime candidate in the upcoming clash between Port Adelaide and Sydney Swans. Over his last five away games, Horne-Francis has been a midfield maestro, averaging a hefty 23.6 disposals. His ability to find the footy is undeniable, especially against Sydney, where he has maintained an average of 21 disposals in their recent encounters. What's more, Horne-Francis boasts impressive consistency, currently riding a six-game streak of hitting the over on disposals. With a model predicting him to reach 23.8 disposals and showing a solid edge of 9.4%, the signs point towards him continuing his stellar form. Bet confidently on Horne-Francis to surpass the 20.5 disposal line and make his mark at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jason Horne-Francis averaged 21.8 disposals, 1.1 goals and 4.4 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

21.8
Disposals
1.1
Goals
4.4
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jason Horne-Francis recorded 23 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans23041
13 Sep 24Hawthorn19141
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats18133
25 Aug 24Fremantle20222
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows23276
10 Aug 24Melbourne282133
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans27140
26 Jul 24Carlton23156
20 Jul 24Richmond18062
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS9225
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 20.5 Over -189 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 19.5 Over -263 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Goals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jason Horne-Francis is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.4% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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