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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jason Horne-Francis is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 93 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 93%, implied 88%, edge +4.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 5:27PM UTC
AFL

Jason Horne-Francis

Port Adelaide

+4.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+4.5% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
93 in 100
Predicted
23.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 93.0% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +4.5%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals93.0%—88.5%1.08+4.5%

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AI Analysis

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Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) Over 16.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to dependable midfielders, Jason Horne-Francis is the epitome of consistency. His last five away games have seen him average a stellar 23.6 disposals, showcasing his ability to find the footy wherever he plays. Facing the Sydney Swans, a team he's historically performed well against with an average of 21 disposals in their previous encounters, sets the stage for another standout performance. Horne-Francis' recent form is red hot, boasting an impressive 8-game hit streak for away fixtures and a flawless 6-game streak overall. With a model prediction of 23.8 disposals and a solid 88.5% implied probability, the Over 16.5 disposals line seems like a safe bet. Expect him to continue his stellar run, racking up possessions and driving Port Adelaide's midfield engine at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jason Horne-Francis averaged 21.8 disposals, 1.1 goals and 4.4 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

21.8
Disposals
1.1
Goals
4.4
Marks
3.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Jason Horne-Francis recorded 23 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans23041
13 Sep 24Hawthorn19141
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats18133
25 Aug 24Fremantle20222
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows23276
10 Aug 24Melbourne282133
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans27140
26 Jul 24Carlton23156
20 Jul 24Richmond18062
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS9225
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 16.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 17.5 Over -625 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 18.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jason Horne-Francis is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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