Jason Horne-Francis (Port Adelaide) Over 17.5 Disposals (-769)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jason Horne-Francis is comfortably clearing this line on almost every metric available, and the 17.5 target looks well short of where he's operating. His L5 away disposals average sits at 22.6, and specifically against St Kilda away he's averaging 22.7 — the model projects 23.8, a gap of 6.3 disposals above the line. That's a meaningful cushion. He's combining 14.4 kicks with 8.2 handballs in away games, generating 349 metres gained per game, which tells you he's not just accumulating cheaply — he's winning the ball in space and moving it. The 3/3 overall hit rate and a current three-game streak over this line reinforce the consistency. The catch is the juice: -769 implies 88.5% probability, so the model's 1.3% edge is thin. This is a high-confidence prop, not a value play — size it accordingly and treat it as a low-risk leg in a multi.