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AFL

Trent Rivers

Melbourne

+7.9% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 22.5 -115 (1.87)
+7.9% Edge
Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne
Sun 10 Aug, 5:15AM
Model Probability
61.4%
Implied Probability
53.5%
Model Edge
+7.9%
Predicted Value
21.0 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Trent Rivers (Melbourne) Under 22.5 Disposals (-115)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Trent Rivers is likely to go under 22.5 disposals based on recent performance trends. Despite a solid overall average of 22 disposals, his last 5 games at home show an average of 17.6 disposals. Additionally, facing the Western Bulldogs, he historically averages 20 disposals against them. His recent contested possessions of 5.6 and uncontested possessions of 11.4 at home align with a lower disposal count. With a model predicting 21 disposals and a 7.9% edge, Rivers' recent form and matchup history suggest he's more likely to fall under 22.5 disposals in this game.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (5 picks) 60.0% (3/5)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
10 Aug 25 Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 22.5 Under -115 ✓ HIT
27 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 21.5 Under -122 ✗ MISS
09 Jun 25 Collingwood Magpies @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 22.5 Under -127 ✗ MISS
09 Jun 25 Collingwood Magpies @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
01 Jun 25 St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending

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