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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Trent Rivers is Over 9.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 85 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 85%, implied 73%, edge +12.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 6:39PM UTC
AFL

Trent Rivers

Melbourne

+12.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Kicks Over 9.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
+12.4% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
85 in 100
Predicted
14.2 Kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 85.4% · the book's price implies 73.0% · gap +12.4%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks85.4%73.0%1.17+12.4%

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AI Analysis

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Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues: Trent Rivers Over 9.5 Kicks (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Trent Rivers has been a solid player for Melbourne, and he's been getting plenty of kicks lately. He consistently racks up over 9.5 kicks in games, especially when you look at how well Melbourne has been playing, winning 7 of their last 10 matches. They often dominate the contested ball, which means Rivers will have more chances to get his kicks in. Carlton is also on a roll, winning 8 of their last 10, but they concede a decent number of points. The close nature of this matchup means both teams will be fighting hard for every possession, and that could lead to more opportunities for Rivers. The main risk is that Carlton has been strong defensively, but Rivers' form gives him a good chance to hit that over.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Trent Rivers averaged 21.3 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.3 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

21.3
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.3
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Trent Rivers has cleared 13.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o13.590%
o14.590%
o16.590%
o17.580%
o19.570%
o20.570%
o22.540%
o24.520%
o25.520%
o27.510%
o28.510%
o30.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Trent Rivers is averaging 20.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

20.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Trent Rivers recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood20062
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS30022
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide14011
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs25145
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS25052
21 Jul 24Fremantle19044
13 Jul 24Essendon29087
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles29095
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions22041
22 Jun 24North Melbourne21166
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 16.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 15.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 14.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Trent Rivers (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Trent Rivers is Over 9.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.4% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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