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AFL

Trent Rivers

Melbourne

Value call

Trent Rivers (Melbourne) has one live pick today: over 11.5 kicks that pays $182 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
61 in 100
Predicted
14.2 kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 60.9% · before adjusting for past results 72.8% · the book's price implies 54.9% · gap +6.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 7:35 PM AEST
Trent Rivers
over 11.5 kicks
Kicks Over 11.5 -122 (1.82) · $100→$182
Value call
HIGHWins about 61 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$18.20 Odds-122
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Trent Rivers is Over 11.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 61 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 61%, the price says 55%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 31, 12:26AM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks72.8%60.9%54.9%1.64+17.9%

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AI Analysis

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Trent Rivers (Melbourne) Over 11.5 player_kicks_over (-122)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Trent Rivers. The young gun from Melbourne has been turning heads this season with his precise kicking and cool-headed decision-making. As the Dees gear up to face the Blues at the hallowed MCG, all signs point to Rivers snagging more than 11.5 kicks. With a model prediction of 14.2 kicks and a solid edge of 17.9%, Trent is set to shine on his home turf. Plus, considering his recent form and the strategic advantage of playing at the imposing MCG, it's easy to see why the smart money is on Rivers racking up the possessions. So, if you're looking for a reliable bet to get your heart racing this weekend, backing Trent Rivers to go over 11.5 kicks is a solid play. Expect him to split the middle and deliver a kicking masterclass against Carlton.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Trent Rivers averaged 21.3 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.3 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

21.3
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.3
Marks
2.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (23 Aug 24 vs Collingwood), Trent Rivers recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
23 Aug 24Collingwood20062
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS30022
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide14011
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs25145
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS25052
21 Jul 24Fremantle19044
13 Jul 24Essendon29087
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles29095
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions22041
22 Jun 24North Melbourne21166
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Kicks 11.5 Over -122 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Kicks 9.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Marks 3.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Fantasy — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Marks — — — Pending

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About This Player

Trent Rivers (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Trent Rivers is Over 11.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.9% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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