Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
AFL

Tom Sparrow

Melbourne

Value call

Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) has one live pick today: over 11.5 kicks that pays $144 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
67 in 100
Predicted
14.8 kicks
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 67.4% · before adjusting for past results 80.0% · the book's price implies 69.4% · gap -2.0%.

Latest Model PickFree
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 7:35 PM AEST
Tom Sparrow
over 11.5 kicks
Kicks Over 11.5 -227 (1.44) · $100→$144
Value call
HIGHWins about 67 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.40 Odds-227
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Sparrow is Over 11.5 on Kicks.
On Kicks, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 67%, the price says 69%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 16, 7:57PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Kicks80.0%67.4%69.4%1.48+10.6%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) Over 11.5 player_kicks_over (-227)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to pinpointing a player prop bet that's as reliable as a Melbourne tram running on time, Tom Sparrow stands out like a bright Sherrin under the MCG floodlights. With the Demons hosting Carlton at the hallowed grounds, Sparrow finds himself in a prime position to rack up the kicks. Averaging a solid 14.8 kicks per game with a model edge of 10.6%, Sparrow's foot skills are as sharp as a freshly-studded boot. Facing the Blues at home, where he thrives, Sparrow's ability to find space and deliver quality possessions is akin to a seasoned midfielder leading the charge. So, if you're looking for a player to not just meet but exceed that 11.5 kicks line, backing Sparrow to put on a clinic is a bet that's as tantalizing as a meat pie at half-time.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Sparrow averaged 14.9 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
0.3
Goals
3.5
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Tom Sparrow recorded 4 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS4000
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide21043
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs18234
21 Jul 24Fremantle15043
13 Jul 24Essendon12042
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12073
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions15013
22 Jun 24North Melbourne16114
10 Jun 24Collingwood13044
2 Jun 24Fremantle16060
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
22 Aug 26 Western Bulldogs @ Melbourne Demons Handballs 7.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 19.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 18.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Kicks — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Sparrow is Over 11.5 on Kicks. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.6% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.