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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Sparrow is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +4.5%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
AFL

Tom Sparrow

Melbourne

+4.5% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -233 (1.43)
+4.5% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 13 Jun, 3:15AM
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Model Probability
74.4%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+4.5%
Predicted Value
22.8 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.4%69.9%1.34+4.5%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) Over 19.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Mate, when it comes to backing a player prop bet, you want a bloke who's in the thick of the action, and that's exactly what Tom Sparrow brings to the table. The lad's been on a tear lately, averaging 21.4 disposals in his last five home games, with a solid contested possessions average of 7.8. Sparrow's been sharp with his kicks too, averaging 12.2 per game, and his disposal efficiency sits at a respectable 70.2%. Facing Essendon, who he's been snagging an average of 10.3 disposals against in their last five encounters, Sparrow looks primed to shine at the mighty MCG. With his recent form and ability to rack up the possessions, taking the Over on Sparrow's 19.5 disposals line seems like a fair dinkum bet for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 4 of last 4(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
14.2avg disposals recent
Season best22
Disposals last 10avg 14.2 · hi 21 · lo 4
1613161512121518214

Tom Sparrow has a disposals high of 22 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.3avg goals recent
Season best2
Goals last 10avg 0.3 · hi 2 · lo 0
0010000200

Tom Sparrow has a goals high of 2 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 19.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 18.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 17.5 Over -500 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Sparrow is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.5% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 13 June at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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