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AFL

Tom Sparrow

Melbourne

+0.9% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -233 (1.43)
+0.9% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth
Sat 21 Mar, 8:35AM
Model Probability
70.8%
Implied Probability
69.9%
Model Edge
+0.9%
Predicted Value
14.2 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) Over 11.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Tom Sparrow is the name that stands out for the upcoming clash against the Fremantle Dockers. Sparrow has been in fine form lately, boasting an average of 15 disposals over his last five away games, comfortably exceeding the proposed line of 11.5. His recent stats paint a picture of consistency and impact, with a stellar disposal efficiency of 79.7% and an average of 7.8 kicks and 7.2 handballs per game. Against Fremantle specifically, Sparrow has averaged 16 disposals in his last five encounters, showing a knack for stepping up against this opponent. With his current hot streak and reliable performance, the Over on Sparrow's disposals looks like a solid bet with a high probability of hitting.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (2 picks) 50.0% (1/2)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
21 Mar 26 Melbourne Demons @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals 11.5 Over -233 ✓ HIT
01 Jun 25 St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons Goals 0.5 Over +125 ✗ MISS

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About This Player

Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 2 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 50.0% (1/2). The latest model pick for Tom Sparrow is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.9% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers on Saturday 21 March at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.