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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Sparrow is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 53 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 53%, implied 72%, edge +7.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 1, 8:22AM UTC
AFL

Tom Sparrow

Melbourne

+7.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -256 (1.39) · $100→$139
+7.0% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 29 Aug, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
79 in 100
Predicted
25.8 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 78.9% · the book's price implies 71.9% · gap +7.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals78.9%52.6%71.9%1.90+7.0%

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AI Analysis

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Melbourne Demons vs Carlton Blues: Tom Sparrow Over 21.5 Disposals (-256)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Sparrow has been a solid performer for Melbourne, and playing at the MCG gives him a great chance to shine. The Demons have been winning a lot lately, taking 7 out of their last 10 games. Sparrow should get plenty of opportunities to rack up disposals, especially since Melbourne tends to win the contested ball more often than Carlton. While Carlton has also been strong, winning 8 of their last 10, they still give up a fair number of disposals. It's worth noting that both teams are closely matched in terms of contested possessions, so the game could be tight. But with the way Sparrow has been playing, hitting over 21.5 disposals seems very doable. Just remember, it won't be a walk in the park!

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Tom Sparrow averaged 14.9 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.5 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

14.9
Disposals
0.3
Goals
3.5
Marks
3.6
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Tom Sparrow recorded 4 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS4000
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide21043
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs18234
21 Jul 24Fremantle15043
13 Jul 24Essendon12042
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12073
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions15013
22 Jun 24North Melbourne16114
10 Jun 24Collingwood13044
2 Jun 24Fremantle16060
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 21.5 Over -256 ✓ HIT
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
29 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Tom Sparrow (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Sparrow is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.0% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 29 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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