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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom Mitchell is Under 24.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 74%, versus the book's implied 55%, for a model edge of +19.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:03PM UTC
AFL

Tom Mitchell

Collingwood

+19.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 24.5 -120 (1.83)
+19.2% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast, QLD · Outdoor
Fri 11 Jul, 9:40AM
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Model Probability
73.8%
Implied Probability
54.6%
Model Edge
+19.2%
Predicted Value
21.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.8%—54.6%1.35+19.2%

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AI Analysis

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Tom Mitchell (Collingwood) Under 24.5 Disposals (-120)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Mitchell's recent away form, averaging 19 disposals over his last 5 away games, falls below the line of 24.5 set for this matchup. Despite his higher historical averages against Gold Coast, his overall disposals average of 24 in the last 5 games, combined with the model's prediction of 21.3 and a standard deviation of 5, suggest a favorable opportunity to bet on him going under 24.5 disposals. Mitchell's consistent turnover rate (average of 2 per game) and Gold Coast's potential defensive pressure further support this bet. The model's edge of 19.2% and Mitchell's current hit rate of 4/5 away games make this an enticing under bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.2avg disposals recent
Season best33
Disposals last 10avg 22.2 · hi 33 · lo 9
3321242491724302119

Tom Mitchell has a disposals high of 33 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tom Mitchell (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom Mitchell is Under 24.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +19.2% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns on Friday 11 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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