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AFL

Tom Mitchell

Collingwood

+18.3% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Under 24.5 -125 (1.80)
+18.3% Edge
Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns
People First Stadium, Gold Coast
Fri 11 Jul, 9:40AM
Model Probability
73.8%
Implied Probability
55.6%
Model Edge
+18.3%
Predicted Value
21.3 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Tom Mitchell (Collingwood) Under 24.5 Disposals (-125)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Tom Mitchell's recent away game averages fall below the set line of 24.5 disposals, indicating potential difficulty in reaching this mark. Despite his strong overall performance, facing Gold Coast Suns could limit his disposals based on his lower past averages against this opponent. Mitchell's L5 vs. Gold Coast Suns disposals average of 29.5 is significantly higher than the model's prediction of 21.3. With a 18.3% edge and Mitchell's recent struggles against this opponent, betting on him to go under 24.5 disposals seems a strategic choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (1 picks) 100.0% (1/1)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
11 Jul 25 Collingwood Magpies @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 24.5 Under -125 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Tom Mitchell (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 1 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (1/1). The latest model pick for Tom Mitchell is Under 24.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is Collingwood Magpies vs Gold Coast Suns on Friday 11 July at People First Stadium, Gold Coast. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.