Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom McCartin is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 70 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 70%, implied 70%, edge +0.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:47AM UTC
AFL

Tom McCartin

Sydney Swans

+0.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+0.3% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
17.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.3% · the book's price implies 69.9% · gap +0.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.3%—69.9%1.42+0.3%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

See his full recent form

Unlock how often this player has landed over his last 3, 5, 10, 15 and 20 games — plus his current streak.

Bet Better Unlock Full Form Curve
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Tom McCartin Over 14.5 Disposals (-233)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

For Tom McCartin to score over 14.5 disposals tonight, he'll need to stay active on the field and get his hands on the ball. The Sydney Swans have been playing well lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and averaging over 57 points before half-time in their recent matches. This suggests a fast-paced game, which usually means more opportunities for players to collect disposals. Fremantle has also been strong, winning 7 of their last 10, but they average fewer points before half-time compared to the Swans. This could mean a tighter game, and if McCartin doesn't get enough chances early on, he might struggle to reach that number. Still, with the way the Swans have been playing, it looks promising for him to hit over 14.5 disposals.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Tom McCartin's lines for Fri 18 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 14.5

Tom McCartin's disposals line is 14.5.

Season averages (2024)

Tom McCartin averaged 11.4 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.8 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

11.4
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.8
Marks
0.5
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Tom McCartin has cleared 10.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.590%
o11.580%
o13.570%
o15.560%
o16.550%
o18.530%
o20.520%
o21.520%
o23.510%
o25.510%
o26.50%
o28.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Tom McCartin is averaging 15.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

15.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Tom McCartin recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions7011
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide15080
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS7050
16 Aug 24Essendon140100
9 Aug 24Collingwood7011
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide11041
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs17061
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions14061
13 Jul 24North Melbourne13050
7 Jul 24St Kilda19091
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals 11.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending
05 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Tom McCartin (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom McCartin is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.3% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.