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The latest Bet Better model pick for Tom McCartin is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 16, 9:51AM UTC
AFL

Tom McCartin

Sydney Swans

+1.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -455 (1.22)
+1.2% Edge
Brisbane Lions @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 14 Mar, 8:10AM
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Model Probability
83.2%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+1.2%
Predicted Value
14.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.2%—82.0%1.20+1.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Tom McCartin (Sydney Swans) Over 9.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop in the AFL, Tom McCartin is the man to watch. Playing at home for the Sydney Swans against the Brisbane Lions at SCG, McCartin has been a possession magnet, averaging 15.4 disposals in his last five home games. His recent form is red hot, boasting an impressive 100% hit rate over the last seven home games and maintaining a flawless 15/15 overall hit rate. With a model prediction of 14.3 disposals for this game and facing an opponent where he has averaged 9.3 disposals in their last five encounters, the Over 9.5 line seems well within reach for McCartin. Expect him to continue his dominance in the midfield, racking up kicks, handballs, and intercepts to help drive the Swans to victory.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 18.5
18.4avg disposals L5
Home20.2vs Adelaide Crows13.4Season best19
O 16.580%
O 17.580%
O 18.560%
O 19.560%
O 20.560%
O 21.550%
Game log vs line (O 18.5)avg 12.4 · hi 19 · lo 7
19131417117147157

Tom McCartin has gone over 18.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.4 disposals, best 19).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Tom McCartin (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Tom McCartin is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 14 March at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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