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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Wicks is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 71 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 71%, implied 71%, edge +0.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 25, 6:13PM UTC
AFL

Sam Wicks

Sydney Swans

+0.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
+0.1% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
71 in 100
Predicted
19.3 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 71.0% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +0.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%—70.9%1.41+0.1%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Wicks (Sydney Swans) Over 16.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to hit the Over on disposals, Sam Wicks is the man to watch in the upcoming clash between the Sydney Swans and Port Adelaide Power. Wicks has been a midfield maestro in recent home games, averaging a solid 21 disposals with a stellar 74.4% disposal efficiency. His ability to find space and rack up the ball, coupled with his knack for gaining valuable metres, makes him a key asset in the Swans' midfield engine room. Against Port Adelaide, Wicks has historically stepped up, averaging 19 disposals in their previous encounters. With a current hit streak of 5 at home and 4 overall, Wicks is in fine form and poised to make an impact. Bet on Wicks to surpass the line of 16.5 disposals and be a key player in driving the Swans to victory at the SCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Sam Wicks averaged 9.6 disposals, 0.6 goals and 1.8 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

9.6
Disposals
0.6
Goals
1.8
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Sam Wicks has cleared 13.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o13.590%
o14.590%
o16.560%
o17.550%
o19.530%
o20.530%
o22.50%
o24.50%
o25.50%
o27.50%
o28.50%
o30.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Sam Wicks is averaging 16.4 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.4
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (3 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Sam Wicks recorded 6 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide6014
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs8004
7 Jul 24St Kilda12011
29 Jun 24Fremantle10211
22 Jun 24GWS GIANTS5012
15 Jun 24Adelaide Crows9022
9 Jun 24Geelong Cats17051
23 May 24Western Bulldogs9112
17 May 24Carlton16110
10 May 24Fremantle13022
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals 16.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Sam Wicks (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Wicks is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.1% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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