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The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Wicks is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 65%, edge +7.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:46AM UTC
AFL

Sam Wicks

Sydney Swans

+7.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -189 (1.53) · $100→$153
+7.1% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
18.2 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.5% · the book's price implies 65.4% · gap +7.1%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.5%—65.4%1.38+7.1%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games2/10

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Sam Wicks Over 14.5 Disposals (-189)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Sam Wicks to have over 14.5 disposals are looking solid. The Sydney Swans have been really strong lately, winning 7 of their last 10 games and averaging over 57 points in the first half of their recent matches. Wicks has a good chance to rack up disposals, especially with the Swans pushing the pace. Fremantle has also been winning, but they've been slightly less effective in getting the ball early. Wicks might face a tough matchup since both teams are performing well, making it a close call. Still, with Wicks being part of a high-scoring team, he could hit that number. Just remember, there's no guarantee he'll get those disposals!

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Pick History & Track Record

Sam Wicks's lines for Fri 18 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Disposals 14.5

Sam Wicks's disposals line is 14.5.

Disposals 13.5

Sam Wicks's disposals line is 13.5.

Disposals 12.5

Sam Wicks's disposals line is 12.5.

Season averages (2024)

Sam Wicks averaged 9.6 disposals, 0.6 goals and 1.8 marks per game across 16 games in 2024.

9.6
Disposals
0.6
Goals
1.8
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Sam Wicks has cleared 10.5 disposals in 80% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o10.580%
o11.580%
o12.580%
o14.570%
o15.560%
o16.550%
o18.540%
o19.520%
o20.520%
o22.50%
o23.50%
o24.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Sam Wicks is averaging 12.8 disposals per game over his last 5.

12.8
Disp · Overall
0.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (3 Aug 24 vs Port Adelaide), Sam Wicks recorded 6 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
3 Aug 24Port Adelaide6014
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs8004
7 Jul 24St Kilda12011
29 Jun 24Fremantle10211
22 Jun 24GWS GIANTS5012
15 Jun 24Adelaide Crows9022
9 Jun 24Geelong Cats17051
23 May 24Western Bulldogs9112
17 May 24Carlton16110
10 May 24Fremantle13022
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Sam Wicks (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Wicks is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.1% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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