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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Wicks is Over 16.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 70%, for a model edge of +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 5, 2:16PM UTC
AFL

Sam Wicks

Sydney Swans

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 16.5 -238 (1.42)
+0.6% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
71.0%
Implied Probability
70.4%
Model Edge
+0.6%
Predicted Value
19.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.0%70.4%1.41+0.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Sam Wicks (Sydney Swans) Over 16.5 Disposals (-238)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player in the disposals market, Sam Wicks of the Sydney Swans stands out like a shining star at the SCG. Over his last five home games, Wicks has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 21 disposals per match. His ability to find the footy is matched only by his efficiency, boasting a 74.4% disposal rate. Facing off against Port Adelaide, a team he has historically performed well against with an average of 19 disposals in their recent encounters, Wicks is poised to continue his dominance. With his current hot streak of hitting the over in his last five home games and an overall hit rate of 4 out of 4, the data paints a clear picture of Wicks surpassing the 16.5 disposal line once again. Betting on Wicks to rack up the possessions is as safe as houses.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

1 market live
Disposalsvs Port Adelaide PowerO 16.5 -238
80%hit L10 O 16.5
18.6avg disposals L5
Home21vs Port Adelaide11.6Season best17
O 14.5100%
O 15.5100%
O 16.580%
O 17.570%
O 18.570%
O 19.550%
Game log vs line (O 16.5)1 / 10 hit
131691795101286

Sam Wicks has gone over 16.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 18.6 disposals, best 17). Current line: Over 16.5 at -238.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Wicks (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Wicks is Over 16.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans on Saturday 8 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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