Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Powell-Pepper is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 81 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 81%, implied 70%, edge +10.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:41PM UTC
AFL
Sam Powell-Pepper
Port Adelaide
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-233 (1.43) · $100→$143
+10.7% Edge
Port Adelaide Power
@
Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 5 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
81 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 80.6% · the book's price implies 69.9% · gap +10.7%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 80.6% | — | 69.9% | 1.24 | +10.7% |
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Sam Powell-Pepper (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-233)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Sam Powell-Pepper's recent form indicates he's poised to snag a goal against Brisbane. With an average of 0.6 goals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he averages 1.5 goals, the model's prediction of 1.2 goals for him presents a promising opportunity. Despite a slightly lower than ideal 23.3% goal accuracy, his involvement in scoring plays, averaging 2.6 score involvements and 1.6 shots at goal in away games, showcases his offensive impact. The line of 0.5 provides a favorable margin considering his recent goal-scoring consistency. Powell-Pepper's history against Brisbane and overall scoring contributions make him a strong candidate to hit the scoreboard in this match.
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Season averages (2024)
Sam Powell-Pepper averaged 9.3 disposals, 1.0 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 3 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (26 Apr 24 vs St Kilda), Sam Powell-Pepper recorded 7 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 26 Apr 24 | St Kilda | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 20 Apr 24 | Collingwood | 10 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 Apr 24 | Fremantle | 11 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 16 Sep 23 | GWS GIANTS | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 9 Sep 23 | Brisbane Lions | 19 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 27 Aug 23 | Richmond | 16 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 20 Aug 23 | Fremantle | 13 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 Aug 23 | GWS GIANTS | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
| 5 Aug 23 | Geelong Cats | 11 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 29 Jul 23 | Adelaide Crows | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Sam Powell-Pepper (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Powell-Pepper is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +10.7% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 5 July at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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