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AFL

Sam Powell-Pepper

Port Adelaide

Value call

Sam Powell-Pepper (Port Adelaide) has one live pick today: over 0.5 goals that pays $148 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
81 in 100
Predicted
1.2 goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 80.7% · the book's price implies 67.6% · gap +13.1%.

Latest Model PickFree
Port Adelaide Power @ Brisbane Lions
Gabba, Brisbane, QLD · Outdoor
Sat 5 Jul, 7:35 PM AEST
Sam Powell-Pepper
over 0.5 goals
Goals Over 0.5 -208 (1.48) · $100→$148
Value call
HIGHWins about 81 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.80 Odds-208
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Sam Powell-Pepper is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 81 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 81%, the price says 68%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:02PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

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MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals80.7%—67.6%1.24+13.1%

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AI Analysis

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Sam Powell-Pepper (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-208)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Sam Powell-Pepper is a solid pick to score anytime based on his recent form and matchup history against Brisbane Lions. With an average of 0.6 goals in his last five away games and facing an opponent where he averages 1.5 goals in the same period, Powell-Pepper's goal-scoring potential is evident. His L5 shots at goal averaging 1.6, along with 2.6 score involvements per game, highlight his active offensive role. Despite a lower goal accuracy at 23.3%, Powell-Pepper's consistency in getting shots off increases his chances of snagging a goal. The model's prediction of 1.2 goals further supports his scoring ability, making the 'Over 0.5 goals anytime' bet on Powell-Pepper a favorable choice.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Sam Powell-Pepper averaged 9.3 disposals, 1.0 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 3 games in 2024.

9.3
Disposals
1.0
Goals
3.0
Marks
4.7
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (26 Apr 24 vs St Kilda), Sam Powell-Pepper recorded 7 disposals and 1 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
26 Apr 24St Kilda7124
20 Apr 24Collingwood10256
13 Apr 24Fremantle11024
16 Sep 23GWS GIANTS9022
9 Sep 23Brisbane Lions19221
27 Aug 23Richmond16252
20 Aug 23Fremantle13253
13 Aug 23GWS GIANTS8125
5 Aug 23Geelong Cats11332
29 Jul 23Adelaide Crows10011
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Sam Powell-Pepper (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Sam Powell-Pepper is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +13.1% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Brisbane Lions on Saturday 5 July at Gabba, Brisbane. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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