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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Windhager is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 52%, implied 69%, edge +1.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 5:20PM UTC
AFL

Marcus Windhager

St Kilda

+1.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 19.5 -222 (1.45) · $100→$145
+1.3% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
70 in 100
Predicted
22.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 70.3% · the book's price implies 69.0% · gap +1.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.3%51.9%69.0%1.93+1.3%

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AI Analysis

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Marcus Windhager (St Kilda) Over 19.5 Disposals (-222)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to the Saints taking on the Blues at Marvel Stadium, all eyes are on Marcus Windhager to lead the charge. Windhager has been a force to be reckoned with, averaging a solid 23 disposals over his last five home games. His precision with the ball is undeniable, boasting a noteworthy 70.4% disposal efficiency during these matchups. Facing off against Carlton, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 13.5 disposals in their recent encounters, Windhager is poised to shine once more. With his current form showing a four-game hit streak at home and an overall hit rate of 7 out of 8, the stage is set for Windhager to surpass the 19.5 disposal line. In a game where every possession counts, backing Windhager to snag over 19.5 disposals is a bet that's backed by his consistent performance and undeniable impact on the field.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Marcus Windhager averaged 18.1 disposals, 0.0 goals and 2.4 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.

18.1
Disposals
0.0
Goals
2.4
Marks
5.1
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (7 Jul 24 vs Sydney Swans), Marcus Windhager recorded 11 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
7 Jul 24Sydney Swans11012
30 Jun 24Port Adelaide10026
14 Jun 24Brisbane Lions9024
8 Jun 24Gold Coast SUNS15035
1 Jun 24West Coast Eagles19038
26 May 24Melbourne16011
18 May 24Fremantle17027
11 May 24Hawthorn18049
4 May 24North Melbourne25048
26 Apr 24Port Adelaide21024
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 19.5 Over -222 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 18.5 Over -250 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 17.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals Pending
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Marcus Windhager (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marcus Windhager is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.3% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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