Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Windhager is Over 21.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 66%, for a model edge of +6.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:14AM UTC
AFL

Marcus Windhager

St Kilda

+6.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 21.5 -196 (1.51)
+6.1% Edge
St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 18 Apr, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
72.3%
Implied Probability
66.2%
Model Edge
+6.1%
Predicted Value
24.5 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.3%—66.2%1.38+6.1%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Marcus Windhager (St Kilda) Over 21.5 Disposals (-196)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop in the AFL, Marcus Windhager is as reliable as they come. The St Kilda midfielder has been tearing it up lately, averaging a whopping 25.4 disposals over his last five away games. What's more impressive is his consistency, hitting over 21.5 disposals in every single one of those matches. Windhager's ability to find the footy is second to none, with his contested possessions sitting at 9.6 per game and his disposal efficiency a solid 78.0%. Facing the Adelaide Crows, whom he's already averaged 17 disposals against this season, sets the stage for another standout performance. With a current hit streak of 7 away games and a hot streak of 7 out of his last 8 games overall, Windhager is primed to snag those crucial possessions and eclipse the 21.5 mark with ease.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
16.1avg disposals recent
Season best29
Disposals last 10avg 16.1 · hi 25 · lo 9
2125181716191591011

Marcus Windhager has a disposals high of 29 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 21.5 Over -196 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 20.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals 19.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
18 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
12 Apr 26 St Kilda Saints @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Marcus Windhager (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marcus Windhager is Over 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.1% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 18 April at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks