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The latest Bet Better model pick for Marcus Windhager is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +0.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:37PM UTC
AFL

Marcus Windhager

St Kilda

+0.6% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+0.6% Edge
Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 9:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
82.5%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+0.6%
Predicted Value
22.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.5%—82.0%1.21+0.6%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Marcus Windhager (St Kilda) Over 17.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to hunting down player props, Marcus Windhager is our go-to guy this weekend as the St Kilda Saints host the Carlton Blues at Marvel Stadium. Windhager has been a workhorse in his last five home games, averaging a solid 23 disposals, comfortably surpassing the 17.5 line set for him this time around. With his recent form boasting a 70.4% disposal efficiency and racking up an impressive 274.6 meters gained per game, Windhager is in the zone. Against Carlton, he's been even more prolific, averaging 13.5 disposals in their previous encounters. Riding a hot streak with four straight hits in home fixtures, Windhager is locked in to split the middle and deliver for us once again.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 22.5
22.8avg disposals L5
Home23vs Carlton11.6Season best29
O 20.570%
O 21.560%
O 22.550%
O 23.540%
O 24.530%
O 25.520%
Game log vs line (O 22.5)avg 16.1 · hi 25 · lo 9
2125181716191591011

Marcus Windhager has gone over 22.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 22.8 disposals, best 29).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 17.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 16.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals 15.5 Over -769 ✓ HIT
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
09 Aug 26 Carlton Blues @ St Kilda Saints Disposals — — — Pending
26 Jul 26 St Kilda Saints @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Marcus Windhager (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Marcus Windhager is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.6% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 9 August at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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