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The latest Bet Better model pick for Nick Daicos is Over 30.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 54%, for a model edge of +17.1%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:40PM UTC
AFL

Nick Daicos

Collingwood

+17.1% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 30.5 -116 (1.86) · $100→$186
+17.1% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 30 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 14°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
70.8%
Implied Probability
53.8%
Model Edge
+17.1%
Predicted Value
33.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.8%—53.8%1.41+17.1%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games3/5
Last 10 games7/10

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AI Analysis

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Nick Daicos (Collingwood) Over 30.5 Disposals (-116)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to betting on player disposals, Nick Daicos is a prime target for the upcoming clash between Collingwood and Geelong at the MCG. Daicos has been a midfield maestro, averaging an impressive 35.4 disposals in his last five home games, well above the set line of 30.5. His recent form also shows a stellar contested possessions average of 10, demonstrating his ability to win the ball in tough situations. With a disposal efficiency of 78.3% and a knack for gaining valuable metres, Daicos is a pivotal playmaker who consistently impacts games. Against Geelong, he's maintained a solid average of 29.8 disposals. With Daicos riding a hot streak and the odds in our favor, backing him to surpass 30.5 disposals is a smart move for footy punters.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 33.5
33.8avg disposals L5
Away32.8vs West Coast Eagles33.2Season best42
O 31.580%
O 32.580%
O 33.580%
O 34.570%
O 35.550%
O 36.540%
Game log vs line (O 33.5)avg 30.8 · hi 42 · lo 24
29323132244228252540

Nick Daicos has gone over 33.5 disposals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 33.8 disposals, best 42).

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 0.5
0.6avg goals L5
Away1vs West Coast Eagles1.6Season best2
O 0.580%
O 1.530%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 1 · hi 2 · lo 0
2200101022

Nick Daicos has gone over 0.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.6 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 30.5 Over -116 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 29.5 Over -152 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 28.5 Over -204 ✓ HIT
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Nick Daicos (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nick Daicos is Over 30.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.1% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies on Thursday 30 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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