Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Nic Martin is Over 19.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 91 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 91%, implied 89%, edge +2.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 7:30PM UTC
Latest Model Pick
Disposals
Over 19.5
-833 (1.12) · $100→$112
+2.2% Edge
Essendon Bombers
@
Fremantle Dockers
Optus Stadium, Perth, WA · Outdoor
Thu 19 Jun, 10:10AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 19°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
91 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 91.5% · the book's price implies 89.3% · gap +2.2%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Disposals | 91.5% | — | 89.3% | 1.09 | +2.2% |
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Nic Martin (Essendon) Over 19.5 Disposals (-833)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Nic Martin is poised to surpass 19.5 disposals against Fremantle based on his recent stellar form. With an average of 25.8 disposals in his last five away games and a consistent hit streak, he is likely to maintain his momentum. Facing Fremantle, where he averages 26 disposals, further boosts his chances. Martin's proficiency in contested possessions (7.6) and disposals efficiency (74.3%) also support his ability to meet the line. Despite a slight model edge, his solid performance history and current streaks indicate a strong likelihood of exceeding the 19.5 disposals mark.
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Season averages (2024)
Nic Martin averaged 28.3 disposals, 0.7 goals and 6.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Nic Martin recorded 28 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 24 Aug 24 | Brisbane Lions | 28 | 1 | 11 | 2 |
| 16 Aug 24 | Sydney Swans | 32 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 10 Aug 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 36 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 4 Aug 24 | Fremantle | 25 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 27 Jul 24 | St Kilda | 23 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 19 Jul 24 | Adelaide Crows | 22 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Melbourne | 26 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| 5 Jul 24 | Collingwood | 23 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 29 Jun 24 | Geelong Cats | 27 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 23 Jun 24 | West Coast Eagles | 21 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Nic Martin (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Nic Martin is Over 19.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.2% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Fremantle Dockers on Thursday 19 June at Optus Stadium, Perth. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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