Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mattaes Phillipou is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 67%, versus the book's implied 64%, for a model edge of +3.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 4:02PM UTC
AFL
Mattaes Phillipou
St Kilda
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-175 (1.57) · $100→$157
+3.2% Edge
St Kilda Saints
@
Melbourne Demons
TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs, NT · Outdoor
Sun 1 Jun, 5:20AM
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Implied Probability
63.7%
Predicted Value
0.8 Goals
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 66.9% | — | 63.7% | 1.50 | +3.2% |
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| Window | Hit Rate |
|---|
| Last 3 games | 3/3 |
| Last 5 games | 5/5 |
| Last 10 games | 7/10 |
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Mattaes Phillipou (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-175)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Mattaes Phillipou is a solid choice to score anytime in the Melbourne vs. St Kilda matchup based on his recent form. With an average of 0.6 goals in his last five away games and an overall goal accuracy of 38.3%, Phillipou has been consistently involved in scoring opportunities. His average of 1.8 shots at goal and 4.2 score involvements further support his potential to find the back of the net. Additionally, facing an opponent against whom he has averaged 0 goals in the last five games provides a motivation factor for Phillipou to break that streak. Considering the model's prediction of 0.8 goals and a positive edge of 3.2%, betting on Phillipou to score anytime seems justified.
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Betting angles
Markets & formDisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted 24.4avg disposals L5
Home19.4vs Carlton14.6Season best26
O 22.540%
O 23.540%
O 24.530%
O 25.510%
O 26.510%
O 27.510%
Game log vs line (O 24.5)avg 14.5 · hi 26 · lo 4
Mattaes Phillipou has gone over 24.5 disposals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 24.4 disposals, best 26).
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.2avg goals L5
Home1vs Carlton0.8Season best1
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.6 · hi 1 · lo 0
Mattaes Phillipou has gone over 0.5 goals in 3 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 0.2 goals, best 1).
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Mattaes Phillipou (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mattaes Phillipou is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.2% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 1 June at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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