Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mattaes Phillipou is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 67 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 67%, implied 64%, edge +3.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 12:47AM UTC
AFL
Mattaes Phillipou
St Kilda
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-175 (1.57) · $100→$157
+3.2% Edge
St Kilda Saints
@
Melbourne Demons
TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs, NT · Outdoor
Sun 1 Jun, 5:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
67 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 66.9% · the book's price implies 63.7% · gap +3.2%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 66.9% | — | 63.7% | 1.50 | +3.2% |
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Mattaes Phillipou (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-175)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Mattaes Phillipou is a solid choice to score anytime in the Melbourne vs. St Kilda matchup based on his recent form. With an average of 0.6 goals in his last five away games and an overall goal accuracy of 38.3%, Phillipou has been consistently involved in scoring opportunities. His average of 1.8 shots at goal and 4.2 score involvements further support his potential to find the back of the net. Additionally, facing an opponent against whom he has averaged 0 goals in the last five games provides a motivation factor for Phillipou to break that streak. Considering the model's prediction of 0.8 goals and a positive edge of 3.2%, betting on Phillipou to score anytime seems justified.
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Season averages (2024)
Mattaes Phillipou averaged 14.4 disposals, 0.6 goals and 2.9 marks per game across 13 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Mattaes Phillipou recorded 20 disposals and 1 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 25 Aug 24 | Carlton | 20 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 Aug 24 | Brisbane Lions | 24 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 Jul 24 | Adelaide Crows | 20 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 7 Jul 24 | Sydney Swans | 26 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 18 May 24 | Fremantle | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 May 24 | North Melbourne | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Apr 24 | Port Adelaide | 11 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 Apr 24 | Western Bulldogs | 9 | 0 | 5 | 1 |
| 13 Apr 24 | GWS GIANTS | 10 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 7 Apr 24 | Richmond | 16 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Mattaes Phillipou (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mattaes Phillipou is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.2% on this pick. Their next game is St Kilda Saints vs Melbourne Demons on Sunday 1 June at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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