Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
AFL

Massimo D'Ambrosio

Hawthorn

Value call

Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: over 17.5 disposals that pays $161 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
58 in 100
Predicted
20.4 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 58.3% · before adjusting for past results 70.1% · the book's price implies 62.1% · gap -3.8%.

Latest Model PickFree
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 5:15 PM AEST
Massimo D'Ambrosio
over 17.5 disposals
Disposals Over 17.5 -164 (1.61) · $100→$161
Value call
LEANWins about 58 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$16.10 Odds-164
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 58 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 58%, the price says 62%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 16, 8:08PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 16°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals70.1%58.3%62.1%1.72+8.0%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan ($29/wk) — less than one $50 bet · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Massimo D'Ambrosio Over 17.5 Disposals (-164)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Massimo D'Ambrosio to have over 17.5 disposals look promising. The Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and averaging nearly 50 points before half-time. D'Ambrosio has a solid chance to rack up disposals as the Lions are good at controlling the game, which should give him plenty of opportunities to get the ball. However, the risk is that Hawthorn Hawks can be tough at home, and they might put up a strong defense. If the game stays close, it could limit his chances to collect disposals. Still, with the way the Lions have been playing, this bet feels like a solid choice.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 10 of last 10(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Massimo D'Ambrosio averaged 21.1 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

21.1
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.0
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Massimo D'Ambrosio recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide18045
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs32092
24 Aug 24North Melbourne31252
18 Aug 24Richmond26071
11 Aug 24Carlton31062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS22250
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows11025
20 Jul 24Collingwood26264
13 Jul 24Fremantle8030
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats16172
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 17.5 Over -164 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 16.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.0% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.