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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 82%, implied 78%, edge +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 10:09PM UTC
AFL

Massimo D'Ambrosio

Hawthorn

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+4.0% Edge
Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 19 Mar, 8:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 16°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
18.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.1% · the book's price implies 78.1% · gap +4.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.1%78.1%1.22+4.0%

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AI Analysis

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Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) Over 13.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning machines, Massimo D'Ambrosio stands out as a prime candidate for exceeding the 13.5 disposals line in the upcoming clash against the Sydney Swans at the MCG. Over his last five home games, D'Ambrosio has been a midfield maestro, averaging a commanding 19.6 disposals per match. His ability to find space and distribute the ball effectively is evident in his solid 71.5% disposal efficiency during home games. Against the Swans specifically, he has elevated his game even further with an average of 23 disposals in their recent encounters. With a track record of consistent performance and a hunger for possessions, D'Ambrosio is primed to once again showcase his prowess and comfortably surpass the 13.5 disposals mark, making him a compelling pick for this player prop bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Massimo D'Ambrosio averaged 21.1 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

21.1
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.0
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Massimo D'Ambrosio recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide18045
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs32092
24 Aug 24North Melbourne31252
18 Aug 24Richmond26071
11 Aug 24Carlton31062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS22250
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows11025
20 Jul 24Collingwood26264
13 Jul 24Fremantle8030
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats16172
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks on Thursday 19 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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