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The latest Bet Better model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100. For the numbers: our chance 73%, the price says 85%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 20, 8:11PM UTC
AFL

Massimo D'Ambrosio

Hawthorn

Value call

Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) has one live pick today: Disposals Over 14.5 that pays $117 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -588 (1.17) · $100→$117
Value call
Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 19 Sep, 7:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 16°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
20.4 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 72.9% · before adjusting for past results 85.6% · the book's price implies 85.5% · gap -12.6%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals85.6%72.9%85.5%1.37+0.2%

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AI Analysis

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions: Massimo D'Ambrosio Over 14.5 Disposals (-588)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The odds for Massimo D'Ambrosio to get over 14.5 disposals look promising because our numbers really believe he can pull it off. The Brisbane Lions have been on fire lately, winning 9 of their last 10 games and dominating by an average of 31.3 points. D'Ambrosio is part of a strong team that's been racking up impressive stats, like averaging nearly 50 points before half-time in their last 12 matches. One thing to watch is how close the Hawthorn Hawks have been in their recent games, which could make it tougher. Still, with the Lions' current form, D'Ambrosio getting over 14.5 disposals seems like a solid bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Massimo D'Ambrosio averaged 21.1 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.0 marks per game across 24 games in 2024.

21.1
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.0
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (13 Sep 24 vs Port Adelaide), Massimo D'Ambrosio recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
13 Sep 24Port Adelaide18045
6 Sep 24Western Bulldogs32092
24 Aug 24North Melbourne31252
18 Aug 24Richmond26071
11 Aug 24Carlton31062
4 Aug 24GWS GIANTS22250
28 Jul 24Adelaide Crows11025
20 Jul 24Collingwood26264
13 Jul 24Fremantle8030
6 Jul 24Geelong Cats16172
Quick answers:How many disposals does Massimo D'Ambrosio average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 17.5 Over -164 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 16.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
19 Sep 26 Brisbane Lions @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending
03 Sep 26 Hawthorn Hawks @ Fremantle Dockers Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 19 September at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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