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The latest Bet Better model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:47PM UTC
AFL

Massimo D'Ambrosio

Hawthorn

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -357 (1.28) · $100→$128
+4.0% Edge
Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 19 Mar, 8:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 16°C (Jun 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
82.1%
Implied Probability
78.1%
Model Edge
+4.0%
Predicted Value
18.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.1%78.1%1.22+4.0%

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AI Analysis

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Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) Over 13.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning machines, Massimo D'Ambrosio stands out as a prime candidate for exceeding the 13.5 disposals line in the upcoming clash against the Sydney Swans at the MCG. Over his last five home games, D'Ambrosio has been a midfield maestro, averaging a commanding 19.6 disposals per match. His ability to find space and distribute the ball effectively is evident in his solid 71.5% disposal efficiency during home games. Against the Swans specifically, he has elevated his game even further with an average of 23 disposals in their recent encounters. With a track record of consistent performance and a hunger for possessions, D'Ambrosio is primed to once again showcase his prowess and comfortably surpass the 13.5 disposals mark, making him a compelling pick for this player prop bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.1avg disposals recent
Season best32
Disposals last 10avg 22.1 · hi 32 · lo 8
1682611223126313218

Massimo D'Ambrosio has a disposals high of 32 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks on Thursday 19 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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