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The latest Bet Better model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +4.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:17AM UTC
AFL

Massimo D'Ambrosio

Hawthorn

+4.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -357 (1.28)
+4.0% Edge
Sydney Swans @ Hawthorn Hawks
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 19 Mar, 8:30AM
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Model Probability
82.1%
Implied Probability
78.1%
Model Edge
+4.0%
Predicted Value
18.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.1%—78.1%1.22+4.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) Over 13.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball-winning machines, Massimo D'Ambrosio stands out as a prime candidate for exceeding the 13.5 disposals line in the upcoming clash against the Sydney Swans at the MCG. Over his last five home games, D'Ambrosio has been a midfield maestro, averaging a commanding 19.6 disposals per match. His ability to find space and distribute the ball effectively is evident in his solid 71.5% disposal efficiency during home games. Against the Swans specifically, he has elevated his game even further with an average of 23 disposals in their recent encounters. With a track record of consistent performance and a hunger for possessions, D'Ambrosio is primed to once again showcase his prowess and comfortably surpass the 13.5 disposals mark, making him a compelling pick for this player prop bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
50%hit L10 O 19.5
19.2avg disposals L5
Away19vs Richmond18.6Season best32
O 17.570%
O 18.570%
O 19.550%
O 20.550%
O 21.540%
O 22.530%
Game log vs line (O 19.5)avg 22.1 · hi 32 · lo 8
1682611223126313218

Massimo D'Ambrosio has gone over 19.5 disposals in 5 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 19.2 disposals, best 32).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Massimo D'Ambrosio (Hawthorn) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Massimo D'Ambrosio is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.0% on this pick. Their next game is Sydney Swans vs Hawthorn Hawks on Thursday 19 March at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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