Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Lance Collard is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 52 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 52%, implied 50%, edge +2.7%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 7:27PM UTC
AFL

Lance Collard

St Kilda

+2.7% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 +102 (2.02) · $100→$202
+2.7% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 27 Jul, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
52 in 100
Predicted
0.5 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 52.2% · the book's price implies 49.5% · gap +2.7%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals52.2%—49.5%1.92+2.7%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Lance Collard (St Kilda) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (+102)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Lance Collard presents a promising opportunity to snag a goal in the upcoming St Kilda vs. Melbourne clash. Despite averaging 0.6 goals in his last five home games, his opponent-specific stats reveal an average of 0 goals against Melbourne. With his recent performance showing an uptick in shots at goal and score involvements, Collard's increased offensive involvement bodes well for him to capitalize on scoring opportunities. Considering his 20% goal accuracy at home and the relatively low line of 0.5, this bet aligns with his recent form and potential impact in this matchup. The model's prediction, coupled with his recent stats, suggest a favorable chance for Collard to contribute on the scoreboard.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — the match-up read, the key numbers and how sure it is — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Lance Collard averaged 2.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 0.7 marks per game across 3 games in 2024.

2.3
Disposals
0.0
Goals
0.7
Marks
0.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (26 May 24 vs Melbourne), Lance Collard recorded 3 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
26 May 24Melbourne3010
18 May 24Fremantle4011
16 Mar 24Geelong Cats0000
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Lance Collard (St Kilda) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lance Collard is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +2.7% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 27 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.