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The latest Bet Better model pick for Lachie Jones is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 72%, edge +0.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 6:03AM UTC
AFL

Lachie Jones

Port Adelaide

+0.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -263 (1.38) · $100→$138
+0.2% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Richmond Tigers
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 4 Apr, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
12.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 72.6% · the book's price implies 72.5% · gap +0.2%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals72.6%—72.5%1.38+0.2%

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AI Analysis

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Lachie Jones (Port Adelaide) Over 9.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to pinpointing a player poised to shine in the disposals department, Lachie Jones for Port Adelaide looks like a prime candidate to surpass the 9.5 disposals line against the Richmond Tigers. Jones has been a consistent force on the field, averaging 10.8 disposals in his last five away games. His recent form against the Tigers also bodes well, with an average of 11.7 disposals when facing them away. With his knack for contested possessions (3.6 avg) and solid disposal efficiency (68.6%), Jones is set to make an impact. Factor in his ability to gain meters (284.8 avg) and contribute defensively with intercepts (4.2 avg), and it's evident that Jones is primed to deliver for punters looking to ride his hot streak in this showdown at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Lachie Jones averaged 10.7 disposals, 0.0 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 21 games in 2024.

10.7
Disposals
0.0
Goals
3.2
Marks
1.9
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (20 Sep 24 vs Sydney Swans), Lachie Jones recorded 10 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
20 Sep 24Sydney Swans10021
13 Sep 24Hawthorn11023
5 Sep 24Geelong Cats7023
25 Aug 24Fremantle7063
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows5031
10 Aug 24Melbourne16021
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans14080
26 Jul 24Carlton11043
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS4011
6 Jul 24Western Bulldogs14022
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Lachie Jones (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Lachie Jones is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.2% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers on Saturday 4 April at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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