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The latest Bet Better model pick for Joel Amartey is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 70%, edge +7.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Sep 15, 7:49AM UTC
AFL

Joel Amartey

Sydney Swans

+7.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -238 (1.42) · $100→$142
+7.3% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Fri 18 Sep, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
78 in 100
Predicted
1.6 Goals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 77.7% · the book's price implies 70.4% · gap +7.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals77.7%—70.4%1.29+7.3%

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How Often He's Landed Lately

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Sydney Swans vs Fremantle Dockers: Joel Amartey Over 0.5 Goals (-238)

Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing

The Sydney Swans have been on a roll lately, winning seven of their last ten games. They've been scoring well, averaging over 57 points before half-time across their last twelve matches. With Joel Amartey playing at home in front of the SCG crowd, it looks promising for him to score at least one goal. Fremantle has also shown strength, winning seven of their last ten, but their scoring before half-time has been lower than the Swans. The main concern here is how close the teams have been in recent games. Still, Amartey has a good chance to find the net in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Joel Amartey's lines for Fri 18 Sep

Every market the books have posted for him, with the best price we can find, how often he has cleared the line lately, and his last 10 games on tap. Which side the model backs on each is for Pro members.

Goals 0.5

Joel Amartey's goals line is 0.5.

Season averages (2024)

Joel Amartey averaged 7.7 disposals, 1.7 goals and 3.2 marks per game across 25 games in 2024.

7.7
Disposals
1.7
Goals
3.2
Marks
2.0
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Joel Amartey has cleared 9.5 disposals in 30% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.530%
o10.520%
o11.510%
o12.510%
o13.510%
o14.50%
o15.50%
o16.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Joel Amartey is averaging 7.6 disposals per game over his last 5.

7.6
Disp · Overall
1.4
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (28 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Joel Amartey recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
28 Sep 24Brisbane Lions7030
20 Sep 24Port Adelaide16352
7 Sep 24GWS GIANTS4105
24 Aug 24Adelaide Crows10240
16 Aug 24Essendon8240
9 Aug 24Collingwood11043
28 Jul 24Western Bulldogs10026
21 Jul 24Brisbane Lions6141
13 Jul 24North Melbourne10252
7 Jul 24St Kilda9031
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Jun 26 Sydney Swans @ Port Adelaide Power Goals 0.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Joel Amartey (Sydney Swans) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Joel Amartey is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.3% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans on Friday 18 September at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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