Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jeremy Finlayson is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On Goals, our numbers say this bet wins about 78 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 78%, implied 75%, edge +3.6%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 7:31PM UTC
AFL
Jeremy Finlayson
Port Adelaide
Latest Model Pick
Goals
Over 0.5
-294 (1.34) · $100→$134
+3.6% Edge
Melbourne Demons
@
Port Adelaide Power
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sun 15 Jun, 5:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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How often this wins
78 in 100
See the numbers
For the numbers: model probability 78.2% · the book's price implies 74.6% · gap +3.6%.
| Market | Model | Model probability | Implied | Fair Odds | Edge |
|---|
| Goals | 78.2% | — | 74.6% | 1.28 | +3.6% |
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Jeremy Finlayson (Port Adelaide) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-294)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Jeremy Finlayson is a strong bet to score anytime in the Port Adelaide vs. Melbourne game based on his recent performance. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 home games and a solid 42.0% goal accuracy, he consistently gets involved in scoring opportunities. His average of 2.2 shots at goal and 5.2 score involvements in home games indicate he is actively contributing to his team's attacking play. Facing an opponent where he has historically scored an average of 2 goals in their last 5 encounters, Finlayson's form and matchup bode well for him to find the back of the net, making the "Over 0.5 goals" bet a compelling choice.
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Season averages (2024)
Jeremy Finlayson averaged 12.3 disposals, 1.0 goals and 3.4 marks per game across 12 games in 2024.
Recent game log
In his most recent game (14 Jul 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Jeremy Finlayson recorded 12 disposals and 0 goals.
| Date | Opp | Disp | Goals | Marks | Tackles |
|---|
| 14 Jul 24 | Gold Coast SUNS | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 6 Jul 24 | Western Bulldogs | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 30 Jun 24 | St Kilda | 9 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 22 Jun 24 | Brisbane Lions | 16 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 30 May 24 | Carlton | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 25 May 24 | North Melbourne | 14 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 May 24 | Hawthorn | 9 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 May 24 | Geelong Cats | 11 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 Apr 24 | Essendon | 19 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| 30 Mar 24 | Melbourne | 12 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Date | Matchup | Market | Line | Pick | Odds (US) | Result |
|---|
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Jeremy Finlayson (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jeremy Finlayson is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.6% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Port Adelaide Power on Sunday 15 June at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.
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