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AFL

Jaxon Prior

Essendon

Value call

Jaxon Prior (Essendon) has one live pick today: over 13.5 disposals that pays $141 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
17.1 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 76.3% · the book's price implies 70.9% · gap +5.4%.

Latest Model PickFree
Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 13 Jun, 1:15 PM AEST
Jaxon Prior
over 13.5 disposals
Disposals Over 13.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
Value call
HIGHWins about 76 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.10 Odds-244
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaxon Prior is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 76%, the price says 71%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 26, 4:06PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.3%—70.9%1.31+5.4%

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AI Analysis

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Jaxon Prior (Essendon) Over 13.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jaxon Prior is primed to shine in the upcoming clash against Melbourne. His recent form on the road has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 18.8 disposals per game, comfortably surpassing the 13.5 line set by sportsbet. What sets Prior apart is his ability to impact the game across various metrics, with 13.2 kicks, 5.6 handballs, and 4.4 intercepts per game in his last five away fixtures. Against Melbourne specifically, he has averaged 13 disposals per game in their previous encounters. With a current hit streak of 5 in away games and 3 overall, Prior is in the form of his life and is set to continue his dominance in this crucial matchup. Bet confidently on Jaxon Prior to rack up the possessions and deliver a winning performance.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jaxon Prior averaged 9.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.5 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

9.3
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.5
Marks
1.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (10 Aug 24 vs GWS GIANTS), Jaxon Prior recorded 3 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS3001
4 Aug 24St Kilda7031
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS190101
12 May 24Adelaide Crows8052
12 Aug 23Adelaide Crows14053
6 Aug 23Fremantle9013
10 Jun 23Hawthorn6033
6 Apr 23Collingwood12142
18 Mar 23Port Adelaide2010
1 Sep 22Richmond12053
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 13.5 Over -244 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 12.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending
22 Mar 26 Essendon Bombers @ Port Adelaide Power Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jaxon Prior (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaxon Prior is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +5.4% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 13 June at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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