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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaxon Prior is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 76 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 76%, implied 73%, edge +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 7:30PM UTC
AFL

Jaxon Prior

Essendon

+3.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
+3.3% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 13 Jun, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
GOOD confidence
How often this wins
76 in 100
Predicted
17.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 76.3% · the book's price implies 73.0% · gap +3.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.3%73.0%1.31+3.3%

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AI Analysis

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Jaxon Prior (Essendon) Over 13.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Jaxon Prior to go Over 13.5 disposals against the Melbourne Demons, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, Prior has been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 18.8 disposals with a hit rate of 5/5. His recent form shows an uptick in performance, with an impressive 76.3% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining crucial meters with an average of 416.4 meters gained per game. Facing Melbourne, he has historically performed even better, averaging 13 disposals in his last five matchups. With a current hit streak of 3 and an overall hit rate of 3/3, Prior is poised to continue his dominance in this game. The stats align, indicating that backing Prior to surpass 13.5 disposals is a smart play for this clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jaxon Prior averaged 9.3 disposals, 0.0 goals and 4.5 marks per game across 4 games in 2024.

9.3
Disposals
0.0
Goals
4.5
Marks
1.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (10 Aug 24 vs GWS GIANTS), Jaxon Prior recorded 3 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
10 Aug 24GWS GIANTS3001
4 Aug 24St Kilda7031
27 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS190101
12 May 24Adelaide Crows8052
12 Aug 23Adelaide Crows14053
6 Aug 23Fremantle9013
10 Jun 23Hawthorn6033
6 Apr 23Collingwood12142
18 Mar 23Port Adelaide2010
1 Sep 22Richmond12053
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 13.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 12.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jaxon Prior (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaxon Prior is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 13 June at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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