Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaxon Prior is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 73%, for a model edge of +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:36PM UTC
AFL

Jaxon Prior

Essendon

+3.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -270 (1.37) · $100→$137
+3.3% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 13 Jun, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 27°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
76.3%
Implied Probability
73.0%
Model Edge
+3.3%
Predicted Value
17.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.3%73.0%1.31+3.3%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Jaxon Prior (Essendon) Over 13.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Jaxon Prior to go Over 13.5 disposals against the Melbourne Demons, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, Prior has been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 18.8 disposals with a hit rate of 5/5. His recent form shows an uptick in performance, with an impressive 76.3% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining crucial meters with an average of 416.4 meters gained per game. Facing Melbourne, he has historically performed even better, averaging 13 disposals in his last five matchups. With a current hit streak of 3 and an overall hit rate of 3/3, Prior is poised to continue his dominance in this game. The stats align, indicating that backing Prior to surpass 13.5 disposals is a smart play for this clash at the MCG.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
9.2avg disposals recent
Season best19
Disposals last 10avg 9.2 · hi 19 · lo 2
12212691481973

Jaxon Prior has a disposals high of 19 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 13.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 12.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Jaxon Prior (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaxon Prior is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 13 June at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.