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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jaxon Prior is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 73%, for a model edge of +3.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:07PM UTC
AFL

Jaxon Prior

Essendon

+3.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -270 (1.37)
+3.3% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 13 Jun, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
76.3%
Implied Probability
73.0%
Model Edge
+3.3%
Predicted Value
17.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.3%—73.0%1.31+3.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games10/10

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AI Analysis

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Jaxon Prior (Essendon) Over 13.5 Disposals (-270)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing Jaxon Prior to go Over 13.5 disposals against the Melbourne Demons, the numbers paint a compelling picture. In his last five away games, Prior has been a disposal machine, averaging a solid 18.8 disposals with a hit rate of 5/5. His recent form shows an uptick in performance, with an impressive 76.3% disposal efficiency and a knack for gaining crucial meters with an average of 416.4 meters gained per game. Facing Melbourne, he has historically performed even better, averaging 13 disposals in his last five matchups. With a current hit streak of 3 and an overall hit rate of 3/3, Prior is poised to continue his dominance in this game. The stats align, indicating that backing Prior to surpass 13.5 disposals is a smart play for this clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
15.8avg disposals L5
Home16vs GWS GIANTS12.4Season best19
O 13.560%
O 14.550%
O 15.540%
O 16.520%
O 17.520%
O 18.520%
Game log vs line (O 15.5)avg 9.2 · hi 19 · lo 2
12212691481973

Jaxon Prior has gone over 15.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 15.8 disposals, best 19).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 13.5 Over -270 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 12.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
13 Jun 26 Essendon Bombers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jaxon Prior (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jaxon Prior is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +3.3% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 13 June at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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