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The latest Bet Better model pick for Jake Lever is Over 9.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 73 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 73%, implied 67%, edge +6.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 9:52PM UTC
AFL

Jake Lever

Melbourne

+6.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -204 (1.49) · $100→$149
+6.3% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 27 Jul, 5:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
73 in 100
Predicted
12.6 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 73.4% · the book's price implies 67.1% · gap +6.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals73.4%—67.1%1.36+6.3%

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AI Analysis

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Jake Lever (Melbourne) Over 9.5 Disposals (-204)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jake Lever is poised to shine away against St Kilda based on his recent form. With a model prediction of 12.6 disposals and solid statistical backing, Lever’s L5 average of 11 disposals, including 7 kicks, indicates he's consistently involved. Lever's high disposalefficiency at 93.2% boosts his chances of surpassing 9.5 disposals. His L5 vs. opponent average of 19 disposals showcases his capability against St Kilda. Lever's current hit streak of 3 away games and an impressive hit rate of 3/3 highlight his reliability. Lever's upward trend and matchup history suggest a strong chance of exceeding 9.5 disposals, making this bet an appealing choice for AFL betting enthusiasts.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Jake Lever averaged 13.5 disposals, 0.1 goals and 5.9 marks per game across 18 games in 2024.

13.5
Disposals
0.1
Goals
5.9
Marks
1.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Gold Coast SUNS), Jake Lever recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS7042
10 Aug 24Port Adelaide12071
2 Aug 24Western Bulldogs12040
27 Jul 24GWS GIANTS18071
21 Jul 24Fremantle15071
13 Jul 24Essendon16071
7 Jul 24West Coast Eagles12061
28 Jun 24Brisbane Lions10010
19 May 24West Coast Eagles1010
9 May 24Carlton13053
Quick answers:How many disposals does Jake Lever average?
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Jake Lever (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jake Lever is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.3% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 27 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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