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AFL

Jake Lever

Melbourne

+0.8% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 9.5 -263 (1.38)
+0.8% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ St Kilda Saints
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne
Sun 27 Jul, 5:15AM
Model Probability
73.2%
Implied Probability
72.5%
Model Edge
+0.8%
Predicted Value
12.6 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Jake Lever (Melbourne) Over 9.5 Disposals (-263)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Jake Lever is primed to exceed 9.5 disposals against St Kilda. With a model prediction of 12.6, Lever's recent form supports this. In his last five away games, he's averaged 11 disposals, comfortably surpassing the line. Lever also boasts strong defensive stats, averaging 5 intercepts and 3.2 contested possessions per away game. Facing St Kilda, he historically ups his game, averaging 19 disposals against them in the last five encounters. Lever's efficiency and ability to gain meters further strengthen this bet. With a current hit streak of 3 away games and an overall hit rate of 75% in the last 20 games, Lever is in a good position to deliver on this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (1 picks) 100.0% (1/1)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 25 Melbourne Demons @ Carlton Blues Disposals 9.5 Over -208 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Jake Lever (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. Across 1 settled picks, the model has hit at a rate of 100.0% (1/1). The latest model pick for Jake Lever is Over 9.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs St Kilda Saints on Sunday 27 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.