Geelong Cats vs Carlton Blues: Jagga Smith Over 13.5 Handballs (-154)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
At the MCG, Jagga Smith has been showing some strong signs lately, which makes this bet on over 13.5 handballs look promising. His recent stats show that he's been getting more opportunities, with a typical performance suggesting he can handle this number easily. The model points to him getting about 1 handball per game more than usual, which bodes well for this pick.
However, the key risk is that the game against the Carlton Blues could be tighter than expected. Both teams have been competitive, and if the match turns into a defensive battle, it might limit his chances to rack up those handballs. Still, with the way he's been playing, there's a solid chance he can hit the mark.