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AFL

Jack Steele

Melbourne

Value call

Jack Steele (Melbourne) has one live pick today: over 20.5 disposals that pays $147 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
HIGH
How often this wins
74 in 100
Predicted
23.7 disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 74.3% · the book's price implies 68.0% · gap +6.3%.

Latest Model PickFree
Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks
UTAS Stadium, Launceston, TAS · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 1:15 PM AEST
Jack Steele
over 20.5 disposals
Disposals Over 20.5 -213 (1.47) · $100→$147
Value call
HIGHWins about 74 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$14.70 Odds-213
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Jack Steele is Over 20.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 74 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 74%, the price says 68%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 10, 8:18PM UTC
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 25°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals74.3%—68.0%1.35+6.3%

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AI Analysis

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Jack Steele (Melbourne) Over 20.5 Disposals (-213)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to reliable ball magnets in the AFL, Jack Steele stands out as a consistent force to be reckoned with. Heading into the clash against the Hawthorn Hawks at UTAS Stadium, Steele's recent form is nothing short of impressive. Averaging 22.4 disposals per game in his last five away matches, Steele has been a pivotal figure in the Melbourne Demons' midfield. What sets Steele apart is his ability to not only find the ball but also maintain a high disposal efficiency of 81.6%. With his knack for accumulating possessions, delivering precise kicks, and generating crucial metres gained, it's no surprise that he's surpassed the 20.5 disposal mark in his last seven outings. Facing an opponent where he averages 28.7 disposals, Steele's track record suggests he's primed to continue his dominance in this matchup. Backing Steele to go over 20.5 disposals is not just a bet; it's a calculated expectation based on his undeniable impact on the field.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Season averages (2024)

Jack Steele averaged 24.2 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.7 marks per game across 23 games in 2024.

24.2
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.7
Marks
7.3
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (25 Aug 24 vs Carlton), Jack Steele recorded 20 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
25 Aug 24Carlton20056
17 Aug 24Geelong Cats2721010
11 Aug 24Richmond22085
4 Aug 24Brisbane Lions23097
27 Jul 24Essendon21365
20 Jul 24West Coast Eagles31195
13 Jul 24Adelaide Crows190510
7 Jul 24Sydney Swans28077
30 Jun 24Port Adelaide25092
14 Jun 24Brisbane Lions16045
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 20.5 Over -213 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 19.5 Over -303 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals 18.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
15 Mar 26 St Kilda Saints @ Melbourne Demons Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Jack Steele (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Jack Steele is Over 20.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +6.3% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks on Saturday 4 July at UTAS Stadium, Launceston. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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