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Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry Sharp is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 82 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 82%, implied 82%, edge +0.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 10:18PM UTC
AFL

Harry Sharp

Melbourne

+0.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+0.3% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 22°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
82 in 100
Predicted
15.1 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 82.3% · the book's price implies 82.0% · gap +0.3%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.3%82.0%1.22+0.3%

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AI Analysis

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Harry Sharp (Melbourne) Over 10.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Harry Sharp's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal presence on the field, especially in his home games. Averaging 14.6 disposals per game at the MCG, with a solid 69.6% disposal efficiency, Sharp has been a reliable ball distributor for the Demons. In his last five home games, he's consistently hit his disposal line, showcasing his ability to find space and impact the game. Facing Fremantle, against whom he averages 6.5 disposals, Sharp should have ample opportunity to surpass the modest line of 10.5. With a current hit streak of 2 and an impressive overall hit rate, Sharp is primed to snag more than enough possessions to cover the over comfortably. Backing Sharp to continue his form and rack up the disposals seems like a smart play for this showdown at the 'G'.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Harry Sharp averaged 10.3 disposals, 0.3 goals and 3.0 marks per game across 6 games in 2024.

10.3
Disposals
0.3
Goals
3.0
Marks
1.7
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Harry Sharp has cleared 9.5 disposals in 70% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o9.570%
o10.570%
o11.560%
o12.550%
o13.530%
o14.520%
o16.510%
o17.510%
o18.510%
o19.510%
o20.50%
o21.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Harry Sharp is averaging 12.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

12.2
Disp · Overall
1.0
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Essendon), Harry Sharp recorded 3 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Essendon3011
17 Aug 24Collingwood14022
26 May 24Hawthorn2000
18 May 24Richmond12140
12 May 24Adelaide Crows13043
5 May 24Gold Coast SUNS18174
20 May 23Gold Coast SUNS10141
13 May 23Essendon17061
5 May 23Carlton13133
16 Jul 22GWS GIANTS10021
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 11.5 Over -189 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Harry Sharp (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry Sharp is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.3% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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