Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry Sharp is Over 11.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 77%, versus the book's implied 65%, for a model edge of +12.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:03PM UTC
AFL

Harry Sharp

Melbourne

+12.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 11.5 -182 (1.55)
+12.0% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
76.5%
Implied Probability
64.5%
Model Edge
+12.0%
Predicted Value
15.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals76.5%64.5%1.31+12.0%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Harry Sharp (Melbourne) Over 11.5 Disposals (-182)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to Harry Sharp, it's clear that he's poised to make a significant impact in the upcoming clash against North Melbourne. Over his last five away games, Sharp has been averaging a solid 13 disposals, showcasing his ability to consistently find the footy. His recent form indicates that he's not just a quantity player but a quality one too, with a disposal efficiency of 63.8%. Facing off against North Melbourne, a team he has historically performed well against, Sharp's average disposals rise to 10. With a model prediction of 15.1 disposals and an impressive hit rate of 9/11 in his last outings, backing Sharp to surpass 11.5 disposals seems like a savvy bet. Expect him to be a pivotal figure in Melbourne's midfield battle at Marvel Stadium.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
11.2avg disposals recent
Season best18
Disposals last 10avg 11.2 · hi 18 · lo 2
101317101813122143

Harry Sharp has a disposals high of 18 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.4avg goals recent
Season best1
Goals last 10avg 0.4 · hi 1 · lo 0
0101101000

Harry Sharp has a goals high of 1 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 11.5 Over -182 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 10.5 Over -286 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 9.5 Over -455 ✗ MISS
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
12 Jul 26 Richmond Tigers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
04 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ Hawthorn Hawks Goals Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Harry Sharp (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry Sharp is Over 11.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.0% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks