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The latest Bet Better model pick for Harry Sharp is Over 10.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 82%, versus the book's implied 82%, for a model edge of +0.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 3:36PM UTC
AFL

Harry Sharp

Melbourne

+0.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 10.5 -455 (1.22) · $100→$122
+0.3% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: sunny, 22°C (May 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
82.3%
Implied Probability
82.0%
Model Edge
+0.3%
Predicted Value
15.1 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.3%82.0%1.22+0.3%

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AI Analysis

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Harry Sharp (Melbourne) Over 10.5 Disposals (-455)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Looking at Harry Sharp's recent form, it's clear he's been a pivotal presence on the field, especially in his home games. Averaging 14.6 disposals per game at the MCG, with a solid 69.6% disposal efficiency, Sharp has been a reliable ball distributor for the Demons. In his last five home games, he's consistently hit his disposal line, showcasing his ability to find space and impact the game. Facing Fremantle, against whom he averages 6.5 disposals, Sharp should have ample opportunity to surpass the modest line of 10.5. With a current hit streak of 2 and an impressive overall hit rate, Sharp is primed to snag more than enough possessions to cover the over comfortably. Backing Sharp to continue his form and rack up the disposals seems like a smart play for this showdown at the 'G'.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
11.2avg disposals recent
Season best18
Disposals last 10avg 11.2 · hi 18 · lo 2
101317101813122143

Harry Sharp has a disposals high of 18 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.4avg goals recent
Season best1
Goals last 10avg 0.4 · hi 1 · lo 0
0101101000

Harry Sharp has a goals high of 1 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 10.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 11.5 Over -278 ✓ HIT
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals 11.5 Over -189 ✗ MISS
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending
24 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Harry Sharp (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Harry Sharp is Over 10.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.3% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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