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The latest Bet Better model pick for Finn O'Sullivan is Under 21.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 48 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: calibrated probability 48%, implied 53%, edge +12.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 31, 1:26AM UTC
AFL

Finn O'Sullivan

North Melbourne

+12.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Under 21.5 -112 (1.89) · $100→$189
+12.0% Edge
North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans
SCG, Sydney, NSW · Outdoor
Sun 23 Aug, 5:20AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Our call
HIGH confidence
How often this wins
65 in 100
Predicted
19.5 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 64.9% · the book's price implies 52.9% · gap +12.0%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals64.9%48.0%52.9%2.05+12.0%

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AI Analysis

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Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Under 21.5 Disposals (-112)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Finn O'Sullivan, the midfield maestro for the Kangaroos, has been a reliable cog in the engine room lately. Despite his recent form, the numbers suggest he might fall just short of the 21.5 disposal line against the Swans at the SCG. Over his last five away games, Finn has averaged 15.8 disposals, with a slight dip in contested possessions and kicks. While he's been consistent, his numbers against the Swans and overall hover around the 20-mark, showing a trend that aligns with our under play. With an efficiency of 75.2% but fewer opportunities in contested situations, Finn might snag a goal or two but could struggle to rack up the possessions needed to hit that 21.5 threshold. Trust the data and look for Finn to fall just short in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 7 of last 10(70%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Finn O'Sullivan - AFL Disposals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
23 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans Disposals 21.5 Under -112 ✓ HIT
23 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Sydney Swans Disposals 22.5 Under -111 ✓ HIT
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals 16.5 Over -333 ✗ MISS
06 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Western Bulldogs Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending
01 Aug 26 North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Hawthorn Hawks Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Finn O'Sullivan is Under 21.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +12.0% on this pick. Their next game is North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans on Sunday 23 August at SCG, Sydney. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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