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The latest Bet Better model pick for Finn O'Sullivan is Over 15.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 78%, for a model edge of +5.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 11:16AM UTC
AFL

Finn O'Sullivan

North Melbourne

+5.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 15.5 -357 (1.28)
+5.0% Edge
Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 6:15AM
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Model Probability
83.1%
Implied Probability
78.1%
Model Edge
+5.0%
Predicted Value
20.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals83.1%—78.1%1.20+5.0%

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AI Analysis

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Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) Over 15.5 Disposals (-357)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

As we gear up for the clash between the North Melbourne Kangaroos and Melbourne Demons at Marvel Stadium, all eyes are on Finn O'Sullivan to deliver a standout performance on his home turf. O'Sullivan has been a beacon of consistency, averaging 21 disposals in his last five home games, well above the set line of 15.5. With a solid L5 contested possessions average of 6.2 and an impressive disposal efficiency of 79.1%, O'Sullivan has been a key playmaker for the Kangaroos. Against Melbourne, he has historically stepped up, averaging 12 disposals in their last five encounters. With a current hit streak of 3 and a strong track record, O'Sullivan is poised to shine once again, making the Over 15.5 disposals a compelling bet for this showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 5 of last 5(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted

Finn O'Sullivan - AFL Disposals market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 15.5 Over -357 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 14.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals 13.5 Over -833 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Melbourne Demons @ North Melbourne Kangaroos Disposals — — — Pending

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About This Player

Finn O'Sullivan (North Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Finn O'Sullivan is Over 15.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +5.0% on this pick. Their next game is Melbourne Demons vs North Melbourne Kangaroos on Saturday 18 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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