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AFL

Finn Callaghan

GWS GIANTS

+5.5% Edge
Latest Pick
Disposals Over 24.5 -217 (1.46)
+5.5% Edge
Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
ENGIE Stadium, Sydney
Sat 6 Sep, 5:15AM
Model Probability
74.0%
Implied Probability
68.5%
Model Edge
+5.5%
Predicted Value
27.7 Disposals

AI Analysis

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Finn Callaghan (GWS GIANTS) Over 24.5 Disposals (-217)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Finn Callaghan's recent form, especially in home games, supports betting on him to exceed 24.5 disposals against Hawthorn. With an average of 27 disposals in his last five home games, Finn has shown consistent ball-winning ability. His high disposal efficiency (71.7%) and significant metres gained (523.6) further indicate his impact on the game. Facing Hawthorn, against whom he averages 20.6 disposals, Finn's strong contested possessions (10.8) and uncontested possessions (16.4) make him a key player in this matchup. With a model prediction of 27.7 disposals and a 5.5% edge, the likelihood of him surpassing 24.5 disposals is well-supported by his recent performance and playing at home.

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Pick History & Track Record

Overall Hit Rate (38 picks) 71.1% (27/38)
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
06 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 24.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 24.5 Over -217 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 24.5 Over -227 ✓ HIT
06 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending
06 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending
06 Sep 25 Hawthorn Hawks @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals Pending

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