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The latest Bet Better model pick for Max Gruzewski is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +17.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 9:07PM UTC
AFL

Max Gruzewski

GWS GIANTS

+17.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -313 (1.32) · $100→$132
+17.0% Edge
Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sun 9 Aug, 3:10AM
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Model Probability
92.7%
Implied Probability
75.8%
Model Edge
+17.0%
Predicted Value
1.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals92.7%75.8%1.08+17.0%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games0/3
Last 5 games0/5
Last 10 games0/10

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AI Analysis

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Max Gruzewski (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-312)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Max Gruzewski of the Greater Western Sydney Giants. The stats are painting a picture of a player in fine form. Over his last five home games, Max has been a goal-scoring machine, averaging a cool 1.8 goals per match. Facing off against the Gold Coast Suns, who he's bagged an average of 3 goals against in their recent encounters, the stage is set for Max to make an impact. With an impressive 70% goal accuracy at home and a solid average of 2.8 shots at goal per game, Max is showing he's not afraid to pull the trigger. His recent form suggests he's in the zone, with a 0.8 behinds average at home indicating he's been clinical in front of the big sticks. Considering his recent scoring streak and the historical matchup data, backing Max Gruzewski to snag over 0.5 goals against the Suns seems like a smart play for this upcoming clash at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 3 of last 3(100%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
80%hit L10 O 0.5
1avg goals L5
Home1.8vs Gold Coast SUNS3Season best2
O 0.580%
O 1.540%
O 2.520%
Game log vs line (O 0.5)avg 0.8 · hi 2 · lo 0
2001

Max Gruzewski has gone over 0.5 goals in 8 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 1 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
09 Aug 26 Gold Coast Suns @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 0.5 Over -313 ✓ HIT
01 Aug 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Port Adelaide Power Goals 0.5 Over -476 ✓ HIT
25 Jul 26 Sydney Swans @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Max Gruzewski (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Max Gruzewski is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +17.0% on this pick. Their next game is Gold Coast Suns vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Sunday 9 August at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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