Max Gruzewski (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-323)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Gruzewski has been one of the more reliable goal-kickers in the competition over the past three months, hitting the over 0.5 goals line in 10 of his last 12 games — an 83% hit rate that gives the model real confidence here. The model projects him at 1.6 goals against Adelaide, comfortably clear of the 0.5 line, and that projection carries a 3.3% edge over the implied probability of 76.3% baked into the $1.31 price.
His away form specifically underpins the case. Over his last five road trips he's averaging 1.2 goals, 2.4 shots at goal and 2.6 marks inside 50 — the kind of forward craft that regularly converts. A 40% goal accuracy in away games means he's not relying on flukes to get on the board. The concern is a blank slate against Adelaide specifically, but the broader volume of forward entries makes this a legitimate edge worth taking.