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The latest Bet Better model pick for Max Gruzewski is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 93%, versus the book's implied 85%, for a model edge of +7.3%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:27PM UTC
AFL

Max Gruzewski

GWS GIANTS

+7.3% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -588 (1.17)
+7.3% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sun 19 Jul, 6:40AM
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Model Probability
92.7%
Implied Probability
85.5%
Model Edge
+7.3%
Predicted Value
1.7 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals92.7%—85.5%1.08+7.3%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games3/10

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AI Analysis

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Max Gruzewski (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-588)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Alright, footy punters, let's talk Max Gruzewski. The Greater Western Sydney sharpshooter has been a goal-scoring dynamo, snagging an average of 1.2 goals in his last five away games. Facing Essendon, a team he's bagged 2 goals against in their recent clashes, Max is primed to wreak havoc at Marvel Stadium. With an impressive 50.0% goal accuracy on the road and a solid track record of 2.8 score involvements per game, Gruzewski's form is red hot. Considering his recent goal-scoring streak and the Bombers' vulnerability, betting on Max to kick over 0.5 goals is a no-brainer. Back the Giants' ace to split the middle and deliver for your wager in this Sunday showdown.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 1.5
2avg goals L5
Away1.2vs Essendon2Season best2
O 0.580%
O 1.560%
O 2.530%
Game log vs line (O 1.5)avg 0.8 · hi 2 · lo 0
2001

Max Gruzewski has gone over 1.5 goals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 2 goals, best 2).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
19 Jul 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Essendon Bombers Goals 0.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
14 Jun 26 Greater Western Sydney Giants @ St Kilda Saints Goals 0.5 Over -333 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Max Gruzewski (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Max Gruzewski is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +7.3% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Essendon Bombers on Sunday 19 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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