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The latest Bet Better model pick for Stephen Coniglio is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:04PM UTC
AFL

Stephen Coniglio

GWS GIANTS

+1.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -323 (1.31)
+1.4% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 3:35AM
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Model Probability
77.8%
Implied Probability
76.3%
Model Edge
+1.4%
Predicted Value
17.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals77.8%—76.3%1.29+1.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games4/5
Last 10 games9/10

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AI Analysis

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Stephen Coniglio (GWS GIANTS) Over 13.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Stephen Coniglio stands out like a bright Sherrin under the Canberra sky. With an average of 15 disposals per home game and facing off against Fremantle, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 24.7 disposals in their recent encounters, Coniglio seems primed to shine. His recent form, boasting a solid contested possessions average of 5 and a knack for efficient disposal at 78.0%, sets the stage for a midfield masterclass. Tallying 6 kicks and 9 handballs on average in his last five home games, coupled with his ability to cover ground with 159.6 metres gained, Coniglio looks set to boss the midfield and rack up the possessions. With an implied probability of 76.3% to surpass 13.5 disposals, the smart money is on Coniglio to snag this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
60%hit L10 O 13.5
13.6avg disposals L5
Away14.2vs Essendon22.2Season best31
O 11.590%
O 12.590%
O 13.560%
O 14.540%
O 15.540%
O 16.540%
Game log vs line (O 13.5)avg 18 · hi 28 · lo 2
2422121928162419142

Stephen Coniglio has gone over 13.5 disposals in 6 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 13.6 disposals, best 31).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 13.5 Over -323 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 12.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 11.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Stephen Coniglio (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Stephen Coniglio is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday 4 July at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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