Stephen Coniglio (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Goals (-122)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Coniglio has been quietly reliable in front of goal away from home, and the numbers make a compelling case to back him to kick at least one here. His L5 away games average sits exactly at 1.0 goal, he's averaging 1.2 shots at goal and converting at an impressive 55% clip on the road — well above what you'd expect from a midfielder. Crucially, he's hit this line in three straight away games, a 3/3 hit rate that aligns neatly with his overall L5 mark of 4/5.
The model projects him at 1.0 goal against a 0.5 line, generating a 15.3% edge over the implied probability of 54.9% at $1.82. His 4.6 score involvements and 0.6 marks inside 50 in away games suggest he's finding the ball in dangerous positions regularly. Adelaide Oval won't hurt — this is a genuine edge worth taking.