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The latest Bet Better model pick for Stephen Coniglio is Over 13.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 78%, versus the book's implied 76%, for a model edge of +1.4%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 11:14PM UTC
AFL

Stephen Coniglio

GWS GIANTS

+1.4% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 13.5 -323 (1.31) · $100→$131
+1.4% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants
Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra, ACT · Outdoor
Sat 4 Jul, 3:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: overcast, 17°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
77.8%
Implied Probability
76.3%
Model Edge
+1.4%
Predicted Value
17.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals77.8%76.3%1.29+1.4%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games2/3
Last 5 games2/5
Last 10 games4/10

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AI Analysis

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Stephen Coniglio (GWS GIANTS) Over 13.5 Disposals (-323)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet, Stephen Coniglio stands out like a bright Sherrin under the Canberra sky. With an average of 15 disposals per home game and facing off against Fremantle, a team he's historically dominated with an average of 24.7 disposals in their recent encounters, Coniglio seems primed to shine. His recent form, boasting a solid contested possessions average of 5 and a knack for efficient disposal at 78.0%, sets the stage for a midfield masterclass. Tallying 6 kicks and 9 handballs on average in his last five home games, coupled with his ability to cover ground with 159.6 metres gained, Coniglio looks set to boss the midfield and rack up the possessions. With an implied probability of 76.3% to surpass 13.5 disposals, the smart money is on Coniglio to snag this bet.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Season averages (2024)

Stephen Coniglio averaged 21.1 disposals, 0.3 goals and 1.9 marks per game across 15 games in 2024.

21.1
Disposals
0.3
Goals
1.9
Marks
3.3
Tackles

Hit-rate ladder: Disposals

Stephen Coniglio has cleared 11.5 disposals in 90% of his last 10 games, with the hit rate easing as the line rises.

o11.590%
o12.590%
o14.560%
o16.550%
o18.540%
o20.520%
o22.50%
o23.50%
o25.50%
o27.50%
o29.50%
o31.50%

Home / away and opponent splits

Stephen Coniglio is averaging 16.2 disposals per game over his last 5.

16.2
Disp · Overall
1.6
Goals · Overall

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Stephen Coniglio recorded 2 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Sep 24Brisbane Lions2000
7 Sep 24Sydney Swans14035
25 Aug 24Western Bulldogs19000
17 Aug 24Fremantle24026
14 Jul 24Richmond16002
6 Jul 24Carlton28104
29 Jun 24Adelaide Crows19002
25 May 24Geelong Cats12022
18 May 24Western Bulldogs22026
11 May 24Essendon24034
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 13.5 Over -323 ✗ MISS
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 12.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
04 Jul 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Greater Western Sydney Giants Disposals 11.5 Over -714 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Stephen Coniglio (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Stephen Coniglio is Over 13.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.4% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday 4 July at Corroboree Group Oval Manuka, Canberra. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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