Ed Langdon (Melbourne) Over 0.5 Goals (+155)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Ed Langdon at $2.55 to kick at least one goal represents genuine value when the model has him projected at 0.7 goals — a 19.6% edge over the implied probability of 39.2%. That projection is built on solid home-ground form: across his last five home games, Langdon is averaging 0.8 goals on 1.2 shots at goal with a marks inside 50 average of one, and his score involvements of 5.4 confirm he's consistently in the action at the MCG.
The main caveat is his head-to-head record against the Bulldogs, where his goal average drops to 0.4 at home and 0.2 overall across the last five matchups — a meaningful split worth respecting. His overall goal accuracy of just 15% also keeps this from being a slam dunk. Still, the home context lifts his ceiling, and at these odds the model's edge is substantial enough to warrant backing Langdon to find the big sticks.