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The latest Bet Better model pick for Ed Langdon is Over 18.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 71%, versus the book's implied 63%, for a model edge of +8.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 10, 5:29PM UTC
AFL

Ed Langdon

Melbourne

+8.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 18.5 -167 (1.60) · $100→$160
+8.8% Edge
Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 8 Aug, 3:15AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 20°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
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Model Probability
71.3%
Implied Probability
62.5%
Model Edge
+8.8%
Predicted Value
21.3 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals71.3%62.5%1.40+8.8%

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AI Analysis

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Ed Langdon (Melbourne) Over 18.5 Disposals (-167)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player prop bet in the AFL, Ed Langdon for the Melbourne Demons stands out as a reliable choice. Langdon's recent form at home has been nothing short of impressive, averaging 21.4 disposals over his last five games on familiar turf. Facing off against Fremantle, a team he has historically performed well against, adds another layer of confidence to this pick. With his ability to rack up possessions, maintain high disposalefficiency, and contribute significantly in both contested and uncontested situations, Langdon is poised to not just meet but exceed the 18.5 disposals line. His consistency, coupled with a current hit streak and a stellar overall hit rate, makes Langdon a prime candidate to snag a significant number of touches in this upcoming clash at the MCG.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
22.3avg disposals recent
Season best37
Disposals last 10avg 22.3 · hi 37 · lo 16
20172231172123193716

Ed Langdon has a disposals high of 37 in AFL.

GoalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
0.6avg goals recent
Season best1
Goals last 10avg 0.6 · hi 1 · lo 0
0011110110

Ed Langdon has a goals high of 1 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 18.5 Over -167 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 17.5 Over -303 ✗ MISS
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals 16.5 Over -455 ✓ HIT
08 Aug 26 Fremantle Dockers @ Melbourne Demons Disposals Pending
02 Aug 26 Melbourne Demons @ Gold Coast Suns Disposals Pending

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About This Player

Ed Langdon (Melbourne) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Ed Langdon is Over 18.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +8.8% on this pick. Their next game is Fremantle Dockers vs Melbourne Demons on Saturday 8 August at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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