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The latest Bet Better model pick for Dylan Shiel is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On Disposals, our numbers say this bet wins about 89 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: model probability 89%, implied 88%, edge +0.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 30, 8:42PM UTC
AFL

Dylan Shiel

Essendon

+0.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -769 (1.13) · $100→$113
+0.8% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 8 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: rain, 16°C (Jul 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Our call
A lean, not a lock
How often this wins
89 in 100
Predicted
20.7 Disposals
See the numbers

For the numbers: model probability 89.3% · the book's price implies 88.5% · gap +0.8%.

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.3%—88.5%1.12+0.8%

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AI Analysis

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Dylan Shiel (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Dylan Shiel is poised to shine with his recent form. Despite averaging 14.8 disposals overall, he has been stellar away with 18.2 disposals per game. Facing Geelong, where he averages even higher at 23 disposals, Shiel is set to dominate. His 20.7 model-predicted disposals with a standard deviation of 5 show consistency. With a solid contested possessions average of 6.6 and a high disposal efficiency of 60.0%, Shiel's ability to find the ball and use it effectively makes the Over 14.5 disposals a strong bet. Additionally, his impressive metres gained average of 232.6 and a reliable away hit rate of 18/20 further support this wager.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Dylan Shiel averaged 21.0 disposals, 0.2 goals and 3.8 marks per game across 9 games in 2024.

21.0
Disposals
0.2
Goals
3.8
Marks
3.4
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (24 Aug 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Dylan Shiel recorded 19 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
24 Aug 24Brisbane Lions19050
16 Aug 24Sydney Swans30052
10 Aug 24Gold Coast SUNS24063
4 Aug 24Fremantle20014
27 Jul 24St Kilda19242
19 Jul 24Adelaide Crows21044
13 Jul 24Melbourne28036
5 Jul 24Collingwood26058
19 May 24North Melbourne2012
9 Jul 23Adelaide Crows6010
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Dylan Shiel (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dylan Shiel is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Friday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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