Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bet is live / One clear pick a day / Tracked in public — wins & losses / Free to start, no card
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dylan Shiel is Over 14.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 89%, versus the book's implied 88%, for a model edge of +0.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 2:04PM UTC
AFL

Dylan Shiel

Essendon

+0.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 14.5 -769 (1.13)
+0.8% Edge
Essendon Bombers @ Geelong Cats
GMHBA Stadium, Geelong, VIC · Outdoor
Fri 8 Aug, 9:40AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
89.3%
Implied Probability
88.5%
Model Edge
+0.8%
Predicted Value
20.7 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals89.3%—88.5%1.12+0.8%

See every market's calibrated edge

Unlock the full calibrated-probability grid across every market for this player — model vs calibrated vs fair value.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
Cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Dylan Shiel (Essendon) Over 14.5 Disposals (-769)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Dylan Shiel is poised to shine with his recent form. Despite averaging 14.8 disposals overall, he has been stellar away with 18.2 disposals per game. Facing Geelong, where he averages even higher at 23 disposals, Shiel is set to dominate. His 20.7 model-predicted disposals with a standard deviation of 5 show consistency. With a solid contested possessions average of 6.6 and a high disposal efficiency of 60.0%, Shiel's ability to find the ball and use it effectively makes the Over 14.5 disposals a strong bet. Additionally, his impressive metres gained average of 232.6 and a reliable away hit rate of 18/20 further support this wager.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
19.5avg disposals recent
Season best30
Disposals last 10avg 19.5 · hi 30 · lo 2
622628211920243019

Dylan Shiel has a disposals high of 30 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Dylan Shiel (Essendon) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dylan Shiel is Over 14.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +0.8% on this pick. Their next game is Essendon Bombers vs Geelong Cats on Friday 8 August at GMHBA Stadium, Geelong. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks