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The latest Bet Better model pick for Darcy Jones is Over 0.5 on Goals.
On the Goals market the model assigns a model win probability of 72%, versus the book's implied 60%, for a model edge of +11.8%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 11, 9:33PM UTC
AFL

Darcy Jones

GWS GIANTS

+11.8% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Goals Over 0.5 -149 (1.67) · $100→$167
+11.8% Edge
Greater Western Sydney Giants @ Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 31 Jul, 9:30AM
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Model Probability
71.7%
Implied Probability
59.9%
Model Edge
+11.8%
Predicted Value
0.9 Goals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Goals71.7%59.9%1.40+11.8%

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AI Analysis

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Darcy Jones (GWS GIANTS) Over 0.5 Anytime Goalscorer (-149)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Darcy Jones is a strong bet to score anytime against the Western Bulldogs based on his recent form. With an average of 1 goal in his last 5 away games and a high goal accuracy of 41.7%, Jones consistently gets shots on goal (2.6 on average) and actively contributes with 3.8 inside 50s and 6.8 score involvements per game. Facing an opponent where he has historically scored, Jones' performance metrics show he is likely to surpass the 0.5 goal line set by the sportsbook. The model's prediction of 0.9 goals, with a solid edge of 11.8%, further supports the expectation for Jones to snag a goal in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Darcy Jones averaged 12.8 disposals, 0.9 goals and 1.7 marks per game across 14 games in 2024.

12.8
Disposals
0.9
Goals
1.7
Marks
3.2
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (14 Sep 24 vs Brisbane Lions), Darcy Jones recorded 7 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
14 Sep 24Brisbane Lions7006
7 Sep 24Sydney Swans16124
25 Aug 24Western Bulldogs7003
17 Aug 24Fremantle18117
10 Aug 24Brisbane Lions18212
4 Aug 24Hawthorn16167
27 Jul 24Melbourne12011
20 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS18103
14 Jul 24Richmond11104
6 Jul 24Carlton18142
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Darcy Jones (GWS GIANTS) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Darcy Jones is Over 0.5 on Goals. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +11.8% on this pick. Their next game is Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Western Bulldogs on Thursday 31 July at Marvel Stadium, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

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