Bet Better BET BETTER PRO
Log in
Today's bets are live / Top performing picks daily / Tracked in public — wins & losses
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Dan Houston is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 71%, for a model edge of +4.9%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Aug 12, 2:48AM UTC
AFL

Dan Houston

Collingwood

+4.9% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -244 (1.41) · $100→$141
+4.9% Edge
Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Thu 30 Jul, 9:30AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
Injury/availability data is currently collected for MLB, NBA, NHL, NFL, WNBA and NCAAF only.
Conditions context — last recorded match conditions for this player: mostly sunny, 18°C (Aug 2023). Descriptive context only.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →
Model Probability
75.9%
Implied Probability
70.9%
Model Edge
+4.9%
Predicted Value
21.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.9%—70.9%1.32+4.9%

Which of this player’s bets is worth taking?

The model grades every market on this player and shows you the ones it backs — in plain English, with how much to bet.

Bet Better Unlock All Markets
$4.14 a day on the weekly plan — less than one $50 bet a week · cancel anytime

AI Analysis

SUBSCRIBERS

Dan Houston (Collingwood) Over 17.5 Disposals (-244)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player in the disposals market, Dan Houston of the Collingwood Magpies stands out like a beacon at the MCG. Over his last five home games, Houston has been a midfield maestro, averaging a solid 20.8 disposals, with a keen eye for finding teammates with 78.7% efficiency. Against the upcoming opponent, the Geelong Cats, he's been even more prolific, averaging a stellar 21.4 disposals. With an average of 21 disposals over his last five outings, Houston's ability to find space, read the play, and impact the contest makes him a prime candidate to surpass the 17.5 disposal line comfortably. Backing him to eclipse this mark is a wager backed by recent form and matchup history, making it a tantalizing prospect for punters looking to snag a footy winner.

Unlock the full breakdown

See the model's complete reasoning behind this pick — matchup edges, key numbers and confidence — plus full analysis on every game.

Bet Better Unlock Full Analysis
Cancel anytime

Pick History & Track Record

Season averages (2024)

Dan Houston averaged 23.0 disposals, 0.3 goals and 5.4 marks per game across 22 games in 2024.

23.0
Disposals
0.3
Goals
5.4
Marks
3.5
Tackles

Recent game log

In his most recent game (17 Aug 24 vs Adelaide Crows), Dan Houston recorded 18 disposals and 0 goals.

DateOppDispGoalsMarksTackles
17 Aug 24Adelaide Crows18045
10 Aug 24Melbourne28074
3 Aug 24Sydney Swans242123
26 Jul 24Carlton19025
20 Jul 24Richmond25035
14 Jul 24Gold Coast SUNS34091
6 Jul 24Western Bulldogs17040
30 Jun 24St Kilda14021
22 Jun 24Brisbane Lions21025
16 Jun 24GWS GIANTS35045
DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 17.5 Over -244 ✗ MISS
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 16.5 Over -357 ✗ MISS
30 Jul 26 Geelong Cats @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 15.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT
23 Jul 26 Collingwood Magpies @ Adelaide Crows Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals — — — Pending

See the complete track record

Unlock every graded pick for this player — full dates, lines, odds and results — across the whole season.

Bet Better Unlock Full History
Cancel anytime

About This Player

Dan Houston (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dan Houston is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +4.9% on this pick. Their next game is Geelong Cats vs Collingwood Magpies on Thursday 30 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

Today's selected board

See the plays that cleared the model's filter today

See today's picks

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.

Bet Better is not a bookmaker and does not accept wagers. Information is for educational purposes only. Gamble responsibly — only bet what you can afford to lose. 18+. National Gambling Helpline 1800 858 858. If betting stops being fun, take a break — see our responsible gambling resources.

Get tomorrow's free pick by email

Free. One email a day, tops. Unsubscribe in one tap.

18+ only. Please gamble responsibly.