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The latest Bet Better model pick for Dan Houston is Over 17.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 76%, versus the book's implied 75%, for a model edge of +1.2%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 22, 1:53PM UTC
AFL

Dan Houston

Collingwood

+1.2% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 17.5 -294 (1.34)
+1.2% Edge
Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies
MCG, Melbourne, VIC · Outdoor
Sat 18 Jul, 9:35AM
Availability not tracked for this sport
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Model Probability
75.9%
Implied Probability
74.6%
Model Edge
+1.2%
Predicted Value
21.0 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals75.9%—74.6%1.32+1.2%

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Recent-Form Hit-Rate Curve

WindowHit Rate
Last 3 games3/3
Last 5 games5/5
Last 10 games8/10

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AI Analysis

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Dan Houston (Collingwood) Over 17.5 Disposals (-294)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

When it comes to backing a player to dominate the disposals count, Dan Houston stands out as a prime candidate for the upcoming clash at the MCG. With an average of 18.4 disposals in his last five home games, Houston has been a linchpin in Collingwood's midfield. His ability to find space and move the ball efficiently, with a solid 81.9% disposal efficiency, makes him a key playmaker. Facing Carlton, a team he's recently averaged 23 disposals against, only reinforces his potential to surpass the 17.5 line. Additionally, Houston's knack for intercepts and meters gained further solidify his impact on the game. With a recent hit rate of 6 out of 8 home games and an overall hit rate of 3 out of 4, Houston is a reliable bet to snag those crucial possessions and lead the Magpies to victory.

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Pick History & Track Record

Recent formWon 2 of last 3(67%)

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
21.8avg disposals L5
Away21.8vs Adelaide Crows19.8Season best35
O 19.550%
O 20.540%
O 21.540%
O 22.540%
O 23.530%
O 24.530%
Game log vs line (O 21.5)avg 23.5 · hi 35 · lo 14
35211417342519242818

Dan Houston has gone over 21.5 disposals in 4 of his last 10 AFL games (last-5 average 21.8 disposals, best 35).

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 17.5 Over -294 ✗ MISS
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 16.5 Over -400 ✓ HIT
18 Jul 26 Carlton Blues @ Collingwood Magpies Disposals 15.5 Over -588 ✓ HIT

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About This Player

Dan Houston (Collingwood) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Dan Houston is Over 17.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a slight edge of +1.2% on this pick. Their next game is Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies on Saturday 18 July at MCG, Melbourne. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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