Dan Houston (Collingwood) Under 19.5 Disposals (-132)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Dan Houston, the Magpies' defensive linchpin, heads to the MCG with a solid track record but faces a challenge against St Kilda. Despite averaging 18 disposals over his last 5 away matches, the under 19.5 line seems favorable. His recent contested possessions sit at 5.6, coupled with a 75.1% disposal efficiency. St Kilda's tight defensive structure may limit Houston's ball movement opportunities, potentially impacting his output. With a model prediction of 16.9 disposals and a 13.3% edge, the odds are in our favor for him to fall short of the line. Houston's recent form against this opponent further supports this wager. Betting the under on Houston's disposals could be a smart play given the circumstances.