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The latest Bet Better model pick for Connor Rozee is Over 24.5 on Disposals.
On the Disposals market the model assigns a model win probability of 83%, versus the book's implied 74%, for a model edge of +9.0%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current AFL schedule.
Model updated Jul 21, 1:05PM UTC
AFL

Connor Rozee

Port Adelaide

+9.0% Edge
Latest Model Pick
Disposals Over 24.5 -278 (1.36)
+9.0% Edge
Port Adelaide Power @ Adelaide Crows
Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, SA · Outdoor
Sat 26 Jul, 10:10AM
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Model Probability
82.5%
Implied Probability
73.5%
Model Edge
+9.0%
Predicted Value
29.2 Disposals

Calibrated Probability & Fair Value

MarketModelModel probabilityImpliedFair OddsEdge
Disposals82.5%—73.5%1.21+9.0%

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AI Analysis

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Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide) Over 24.5 Disposals (-278)

Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing

Connor Rozee's recent form, averaging 28.4 disposals in his last five away games, indicates he's a solid bet to exceed 24.5 disposals against the Adelaide Crows. With a model predicting him to reach 29.2 disposals and a comfortable 9.0% edge, Rozee's consistent performance, including a 5-game hit streak in away games, boosts confidence in this wager. Additionally, facing the Crows whom he averages 18.3 disposals against in away games further supports his potential to surpass the line. His strong contested possessions (7.2) and high disposalefficiency (70.3%) solidify his ability to maintain possession and impact the game, making the Over 24.5 disposals a logical choice for this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
DisposalsSeason form & hit rateNo line posted
23.2avg disposals recent
Season best36
Disposals last 10avg 23.2 · hi 29 · lo 16
29242427282819162017

Connor Rozee has a disposals high of 36 in AFL.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result

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About This Player

Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide) is tracked by the Bet Better model for AFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Connor Rozee is Over 24.5 on Disposals. The model identifies a moderate positive edge of +9.0% on this pick. Their next game is Port Adelaide Power vs Adelaide Crows on Saturday 26 July at Adelaide Oval, Adelaide. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your AFL betting strategy.

Bet Better is a model and analytics service, not a bookmaker. Picks are informational only and not a guarantee of results. 21+. Please gamble responsibly.

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