Connor Budarick (Western Bulldogs) Over 12.5 Disposals (-111)
Odds available at sportsbet at time of publishing
Connor Budarick's disposal numbers against Adelaide are the standout figure here. His L5 away record against the Crows sits at 22.5 disposals per game — well clear of this 12.5 line — and his broader L5 head-to-head average of 16 disposals reinforces that he tends to find plenty of the ball in this matchup. The model projects 15.9 disposals, a 3.4-disposal buffer above the line that generates a 19% edge against the implied 52.6% probability baked into the $1.90 price.
The away hit rate of 6/9 (67%) and overall strike rate of 11/15 (73%) over the last 15 games show this isn't a one-off. His L5 overall disposal average of 12.4 is right at the line even in quieter patches, while his metres-gained average of 235 suggests he's genuinely involved rather than padding stats with short handballs. At $1.90, there's genuine value here.