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Model picks & player props
New York Liberty
VS
Phoenix Mercury

New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury Picks & Predictions

Model updated Jul 31, 12:11PM UTC

Every play below is priced against our model. The bigger the green edge, the more the line is in your favour.

WNBA
PHX Arena, Phoenix
Indoor
Sat 1 Aug 2026, 7:00PM
20
Game Picks
30
Player Props
Answer
Model lean: Under 182.5 (alternate_totals)
For New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury (WNBA), model win probability 79.9%, fair odds 1.53, book price -213, model edge +11.9%, this is your free pick — unlock every other market and all player props with Pro. Tip-off Sat 1 Aug 2026, 7:00PM at PHX Arena.
Every pick is logged and graded — nothing hidden after the fact. See the verified record

Game picks

+EV edge in green
Alt Total Points
Under
189
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Model prob · fair odds · edge
PickMarketModel lean
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Underalternate_totalsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Phoenix Mercuryalternate_spreadsPositive-edge lean 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market sharpened toward Phoenix Mercury on this game.

Line movement

▲ moved toward Phoenix Mercury
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Betr Au
on Phoenix Mercury
Shop gain & value% 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Who's out

Injuries & availability

New York Liberty

  • Satou Sabally FOut
  • Anneli Maley FOut
  • Leonie Fiebich FOut

Phoenix Mercury

  • Shay Ciezki GOut
  • Kara Dunn GOut
  • Jovana Nogic GOut
Availability updated Jul 31, 10:00AM UTC · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & availability impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and 6 players are listed out or questionable across both sides.
FactorThis fixture
Availability6 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

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Player props

+EV edge in green
PlayerTeamStatLinePickOdds (US)Edge
Kahleah Copper player_points 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Kahleah Copper player_points_assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Kahleah Copper player_points_rebounds 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Kahleah Copper player_threes 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒
Sabrina Ionescu player_rebounds_assists 🔒 🔒 🔒 🔒

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New York Liberty @ Phoenix Mercury — model preview

<p>Phoenix Mercury v New York Liberty, 2 August 2026. Top of the list: Under 190.5 Total Points. Our model likes 5 bets in this game.</p>

On Sunday 2 August 2026, Phoenix Mercury play New York Liberty in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 190.5 Total Points, priced at -476 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 190.5 Total Points (-476)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

Phoenix Mercury play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Sunday 2 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Under 190.5 Total Points. That is a total points bet. It was priced at -476 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $12.10 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Phoenix Mercury +7.5 on the Line (-256)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

Phoenix Mercury play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Sunday 2 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Phoenix Mercury +7.5 on the Line. That is a points handicap bet. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. It was priced at -256 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.90 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Kahleah Copper Under 24.5 Points and Assists (-125)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Phoenix Mercury play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Sunday 2 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Kahleah Copper Under 24.5 Points and Assists. That is a player points and assists combined bet. It was priced at -125 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Sabrina Ionescu Over 17.5 Points (-179)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

Phoenix Mercury play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Sunday 2 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Sabrina Ionescu Over 17.5 Points. That is a player points bet. It was priced at -179 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.60 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Alyssa Thomas Over 6.5 Rebounds (-175)

Odds available at Fanatics at time of publishing

Phoenix Mercury play New York Liberty in the WNBA on Sunday 2 August 2026. The bet we are looking at is Alyssa Thomas Over 6.5 Rebounds. That is a player rebounds bet. It was priced at -175 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $15.70 if it lands. It is on at PHX Arena in Phoenix. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Phoenix Mercury v New York Liberty. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Track record for this matchup

Logged & graded
0
Total Picks
Hit Rate

Hit rate is how often the pick landed — not profit; favourites can win often and still lose money.

DateMarketPickResult

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New York Liberty vs Phoenix Mercury in the WNBA. The most recent or upcoming game is scheduled for Saturday 1 August 2026 at PHX Arena. The model has generated 20 game picks and 30 player props for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your WNBA betting strategy for this matchup.

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