On Wednesday 30 September 2026, New York Liberty play Minnesota Lynx in the WNBA. Our model likes 5 bets here. The one it likes most is New York Liberty +2 on the Line, priced at +110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
The New York Liberty face a tough challenge with the Minnesota Lynx, who are scoring a ton lately. However, the Liberty have shown they can hold their own, winning 6 of their last 10 games and facing one of the hardest schedules in the league. They've played well at home, and our numbers give them a good chance to keep it close. The Lynx have struggled a bit recently, winning only 2 of their last 6 games. The risk here is that the teams are pretty evenly matched. I like the Liberty to cover the spread and keep it tight. It was priced at +110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $21 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 180.5 Total Points (-208)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
The New York Liberty have been solid lately, winning 6 of their last 10 games. They've faced some tough teams, which shows they can handle pressure. The Minnesota Lynx have also had a decent run, but they're scoring a lot less lately compared to their past games. With both teams not hitting high total scores in recent matchups, betting on under 180.5 total points makes sense. The biggest risk is that both teams might surprise us and find their shooting rhythm. Still, our numbers suggest a much lower combined score, making this a strong pick. It was priced at -208 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $14.80 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a clear favourite. Our model likes this one a lot. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Breanna Stewart Under 31.5 Points and Rebounds (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
For Breanna Stewart to score under 31.5 points and rebounds tonight, she needs to have a quieter game than usual. Although she's been solid lately, her performance tends to drop during daytime games, as seen in her average of 16.1 points. The Minnesota Lynx have been strong defensively, winning 6 of their last 10 games, which could make things tougher for her.
Stewart also faces the challenge of Minnesota's tough defense, which has helped them hold opponents in check. Even though she's averaging nearly 22 points at night, this is a day game, and she might not hit her usual numbers. The matchup suggests there's a good chance for her to finish under the mark tonight. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Courtney Williams Under 16.5 Points and Assists (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing
Courtney Williams has been a bit quieter lately, especially with the New York Liberty facing tough opponents. They've played teams with a winning record recently, which has made scoring harder. The Minnesota Lynx also have a strong offense, but Williams could struggle to find her rhythm against their defense. Betting on her points and assists to go under 16.5 seems like a smart choice right now. She might not get the chances she needs with the way both teams are performing. Plus, the Liberty have been inconsistent, and that could make it tough for her to reach those numbers. It's a gamble, but the signs point to a lower total for her in this matchup. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.10 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Kayla McBride Under 22.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-111)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Kayla McBride needs to score less than 22.5 points, rebounds, and assists combined tonight against the New York Liberty. This is a solid pick because the Liberty have faced some tough teams lately, and they have been playing great defense. Even though McBride has been part of a strong Minnesota Lynx team, she has struggled to reach higher numbers in recent games. The Lynx have only won 2 of their last 6 matches, which shows they might not be at their best. Plus, McBride has been averaging fewer overall points and assists than usual. The biggest risk here is how closely matched these teams are, so a surprising performance could happen. Overall, this bet looks promising given the current form of both players and teams. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads New York Liberty v Minnesota Lynx. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.