Juncheng Shang vs Sebastian Baez: Sebastian Baez to win the match (+129)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing
Juncheng Shang faces Sebastian Baez at China Open on Wednesday 30 September 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Sebastian Baez wins the match. It was priced at +129 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $22.90 if it lands. Our model has this one as a long shot, so treat it as a small punt. In the matchup between Juncheng Shang and Sebastian Baez, Baez presents a compelling value pick at 2.29. His recent form shows a solid 50% win rate over the last 10 matches, which is slightly better than Shang's 40% over the same period. On hard courts, Baez's first-serve percentage is impressively consistent at 61%, translating to 55.7% points won on those serves, indicating strong service efficiency. His second-serve performance also stands out, with a 47.2% win rate, and he saves break points effectively at nearly 49%. In comparison, Shang's overall serve metrics are untested, which raises concerns about his ability to handle pressure against an experienced opponent like Baez.