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Today's ATP Picks — Edge, Probability & Best Odds

Free ATP picks across Match Winner, set betting, totals, handicaps and player props. Every selection shows the model's probability, the market edge, and readable reasoning — so you bet on numbers, not noise.

ATPJaime Faria vs. Ben Shelton 2026-08-16 23:00
Jaime Faria Away
vs.
Home Ben Shelton
Show Picks
Jaime Faria at Ben Shelton: Jaime Faria Game Handicap 3 (Jaime Faria +3 games handicap)
Probability 57.8%
Edge 22.4%
Best Odds 172
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 21.9%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 21.6%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 21.3%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 18.3%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 17.9%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 15.8%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 12.0%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 10.2%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.2%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.0%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.8%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.3%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.8%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.5%
Ben Shelton vs. Jaime Faria — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.5%
ATPFrances Tiafoe vs. Lorenzo Sonego 2026-08-17 00:10
Frances Tiafoe Away
vs.
Home Lorenzo Sonego
Show Picks
Frances Tiafoe Moneyline
Probability 75.4%
Edge 14.8%
Best Odds -154

Lorenzo Sonego vs Frances Tiafoe: Frances Tiafoe to win the match (-154)

Odds available at betfair_ex_eu at time of publishing

Lorenzo Sonego faces Frances Tiafoe at Cincinnati Open on Monday 17 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Frances Tiafoe wins the match. It was priced at -154 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $16.50 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Frances Tiafoe presents strong value at 1.65 against Lorenzo Sonego, highlighted by recent form and serve performance on hard courts. Tiafoe boasts a solid 60% win rate in his last five matches, with a 68.3% first-serve percentage and 64.3% points won on first serves, indicating effective service games. His second-serve points won at 42.2% further demonstrate his ability to capitalize under pressure. In contrast, Sonego's recent form shows vulnerability, particularly in second-serve scenarios. Tiafoe's impressive 75% break point save percentage and low double fault rate (1.59%) contrast sharply with Sonego's struggles against pressure points. Additionally, Tiafoe’s opponents have won 70% of points against him on their serve, suggesting he can exploit Sonego's weaknesses.

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.4%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.8%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.7%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.7%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.5%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.0%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.9%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.7%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.7%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.6%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Frances Tiafoe — locked pick
Probability
Edge 1.4%
ATPAdolfo Daniel Vallejo vs. Tommy Paul 2026-08-17 15:00
vs.
Home Tommy Paul
Show Picks
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo at Tommy Paul: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Game Handicap 4 (Adolfo Daniel Vallejo +4 games handicap)
Probability 56.9%
Edge 13.8%
Best Odds 123
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 12.2%
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 12.0%
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 11.9%
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.6%
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.1%
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 6.2%
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.3%
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Tommy Paul vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 1.2%
ATPFlavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Blockx 2026-08-17 15:00
Flavio Cobolli Away
vs.
Show Picks
Flavio Cobolli at Alexander Blockx: Alexander Blockx Game Handicap -1.5 (Alexander Blockx -1.5 games handicap)
Probability 59.6%
Edge 13.5%
Best Odds 109
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 12.3%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 11.7%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 10.8%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 10.2%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 10.0%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.8%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.7%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.4%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.4%
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.2%
ATPAlejandro Tabilo vs. Rafael Jodar 2026-08-17 15:00
vs.
Home Rafael Jodar
Show Picks
Alejandro Tabilo at Rafael Jodar: Alejandro Tabilo Game Handicap 3 (Alejandro Tabilo +3 games handicap)
Probability 53.7%
Edge 10.4%
Best Odds 123
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.9%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.6%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.3%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.7%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.0%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.2%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.8%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.6%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.2%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.0%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.8%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alejandro Tabilo — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.2%
ATPTerence Atmane vs. Alexander Zverev 2026-08-17 15:00
Terence Atmane Away
vs.
Show Picks
Terence Atmane at Alexander Zverev: Under Set 1 Total Games 9.5 (Under 9.5 games in set 1)
Probability 41.5%
Edge 10.4%
Best Odds 195
Alexander Zverev vs. Terence Atmane — locked pick
Probability
Edge 10.1%
Alexander Zverev vs. Terence Atmane — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.0%
Alexander Zverev vs. Terence Atmane — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.5%
Alexander Zverev vs. Terence Atmane — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Alexander Zverev vs. Terence Atmane — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.6%
Alexander Zverev vs. Terence Atmane — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.4%
Alexander Zverev vs. Terence Atmane — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.2%
Alexander Zverev vs. Terence Atmane — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.6%
Alexander Zverev vs. Terence Atmane — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.5%
ATPArthur Fils vs. Jiri Lehecka 2026-08-17 15:00
Arthur Fils Away
vs.
Home Jiri Lehecka
Show Picks
Arthur Fils Moneyline
Probability 64.3%
Edge 9.4%
Best Odds -122

Jiri Lehecka vs Arthur Fils: Arthur Fils to win the match (-122)

Odds available at matchbook at time of publishing

Jiri Lehecka faces Arthur Fils at Cincinnati Open on Monday 17 August 2026. They are playing on a hard court. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Arthur Fils wins the match. It was priced at -122 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.20 if it lands. Our model leans this way without loving it. In the upcoming match between Jiri Lehecka and Arthur Fils at the Cincinnati Open, Fils presents significant value at odds of 1.82. With a recent win rate of 60% over his last five matches, Fils has demonstrated strong form compared to Lehecka's 50% over the same period. Fils’ opponent's recent serving stats indicate vulnerability: Lehecka's average first serve percentage and points won are both notably low, suggesting he struggles under pressure. In contrast, Fils benefits from solid pressure point performance, with an average opponent break point save percentage of 87%, indicating resilience in critical moments. Additionally, Fils excels in hard court conditions, reflected in his overall serve points won percentage of 62%. Given these predictive indicators, Fils is well-positioned to capitalize on Lehecka's weaknesses, making him the value pick for this matchup.

Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.9%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 6.7%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 6.0%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.7%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.7%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.3%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.3%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.1%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.8%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.9%
Jiri Lehecka vs. Arthur Fils — locked pick
Probability
Edge 1.0%
ATPJakub Mensik vs. Rinky Hijikata 2026-08-17 15:00
Jakub Mensik Away
vs.
Home Rinky Hijikata
Show Picks
Jakub Mensik at Rinky Hijikata: Under Total Games 22 (Under 22 total games)
Probability 55.4%
Edge 9.3%
Best Odds 109
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 9.0%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.9%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 8.4%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.5%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.5%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.6%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.7%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 1.6%
Rinky Hijikata vs. Jakub Mensik — locked pick
Probability
Edge 1.1%
ATPAlex de Minaur vs. Arthur Fery 2026-08-17 15:00
Alex de Minaur Away
vs.
Home Arthur Fery
Show Picks
Alex de Minaur at Arthur Fery: Arthur Fery Game Handicap 4 (Arthur Fery +4 games handicap)
Probability 51.8%
Edge 7.7%
Best Odds 118
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.2%
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 6.1%
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 6.1%
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 6.1%
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.9%
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.0%
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.8%
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 3.7%
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.9%
Arthur Fery vs. Alex de Minaur — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.6%
ATPMartin Landaluce vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante 2026-08-17 15:00
Show Picks
Martin Landaluce at Thiago Agustin Tirante: Under Total Games 23 (Under 23 total games)
Probability 57.8%
Edge 7.6%
Best Odds -108
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.4%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 7.3%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 6.5%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 5.0%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.3%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 4.1%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.5%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.3%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.2%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 2.0%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 1.9%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 1.5%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 1.3%
Thiago Agustin Tirante vs. Martin Landaluce — locked pick
Probability
Edge 1.1%

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Quick answer

What are ATP picks?

ATP picks are model-generated predictions for men's professional tennis betting markets including Match Winner, set betting, game handicaps, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What you get on this page

Every upcoming ATP match with predictions across all major markets. Expand any match to see picks ranked by edge, with probability, best odds, and the model's full reasoning. For the highest-confidence shortlist only, see Today's Picks. For player markets, jump to Props.

Probability Model

The model's estimated chance the outcome wins. A probability of 65% means the model thinks it wins 65 times in 100 equivalent scenarios.

Edge Value

The gap between model probability and the bookmaker's implied probability from odds. Positive edge means the model estimates the true chance is higher than what's being priced.

Best Odds Market

The top available decimal odds at the time of calculation. Odds move — always verify at your sportsbook before placing a bet.

ATP pick types — what's on this page?

Market reference
Market What it means Best used for
Match Winner Which player wins the match outright. Simple single bet or a low-risk multi leg.
Set Betting The exact set scoreline, or set handicap. When a favourite is expected to drop a set, or win in straights.
Game Handicap / Totals Games handicap or over/under total games in the match. Serve strength, break frequency and surface pace.
Player Props Individual stats — aces, games won, tie-breaks. Exploit serve profiles, matchup edges or recent form streaks.

How to read ATP picks in 4 steps

  1. Find a match. Matches are listed in chronological order. Tap "Show Picks" to expand markets and reasoning for that matchup.
  2. Check model probability. This is the model's estimated chance the outcome wins. Compare it against the implied probability from odds to judge value yourself.
  3. Read the edge. Positive edge means the model estimates a higher probability than the bookmaker is pricing. The higher the edge, the more the selection deviates in your favour from market consensus.
  4. Verify best odds. Odds displayed are a snapshot — always confirm at your sportsbook before placing. Line shopping across books on a positive-edge pick compounds your long-run return significantly.
Note: This page shows all model-generated ATP picks. For the curated shortlist of the day's strongest edges, see Today's Picks. All betting involves risk — always bet within your limits.
Data first

Model probability, edge, and best odds are shown for every pick — so you judge each selection on numbers rather than feel.

Monte Carlo models

20,000+ simulations per match estimate true outcome probabilities across every major ATP market, updated as odds move daily.

Responsible betting

Picks are informational only. Betting involves risk and variance. Use stake limits and only wager what you can afford to lose.

ATP Picks FAQ

Quick answers
What are ATP picks?

ATP picks are model-generated predictions for men's professional tennis betting markets including Match Winner, set betting, game handicaps, totals and player props. Bet Better produces picks by running Monte Carlo simulations and machine learning models to estimate true outcome probabilities, compare them to bookmaker odds, and surface positive-edge selections with readable reasoning attached to every pick.

What is the difference between ATP picks and today's best bets?

ATP Picks shows the full set of model-generated predictions across every market for all upcoming matches. Today's Picks is a curated shortlist — the subset of picks, across all sports, that the model rates as highest confidence and strongest edge for the day. If you want everything for tennis, use this page. If you want the model's top selections only, see Today's Picks.

What types of ATP picks are available?

The model generates picks across four major market types: Match Winner (match outright), set betting (set scoreline and set handicap), totals and game handicaps (over/under total games or games handicap), and player props (individual stats such as aces and games won). Match markets and player markets are displayed together within each matchup, ranked by model edge so the strongest values surface first.

How often are ATP picks updated?

Picks are updated daily and re-run whenever bookmaker odds move significantly. As match time approaches, market liquidity increases and line movement can shift the edge calculation on a pick. Between rounds or when no upcoming matches qualify, the page displays a notification and picks return automatically once new market data is available.

Does surface type affect ATP pick value?

Yes, significantly. Clay, hard, and grass courts produce different hold rates, break frequencies, and rally lengths. A player's surface split can shift their true win probability meaningfully from their overall ranking-implied price. Picks on this page factor surface context into the model inputs.

Can I use ATP picks as legs in multi bets?

Yes — individual picks can be combined as legs in a multi or same match multi. However, risk compounds with every leg added, so starting with 2–3 high-edge selections is more efficient than building large multis around marginal edges. For structured multi recommendations with combined probability and edge shown, use the ATP Multis page.

Does Bet Better guarantee ATP picks will win?

No. ATP picks are statistical predictions intended to help inform betting decisions — no outcome is ever guaranteed. All betting involves variance and risk; even high-edge selections lose a proportion of the time. If gambling is affecting your health or finances, contact the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.

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