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Model picks & player props
Tennis
Fri 30 Oct 2026, 10:00 AM ET
Carlos Alcaraz
VS
Tommy Paul

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction & Picks

Our model graded 21 markets for Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul and backs Under 35 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $207.

20
Game markets graded
1
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Under 35 total games
Under 35 Total Games
You bet$10 If it wins$20.70Best price+107
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win48.6%
The price says46.5%

The model graded 21 markets for Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul (Tennis) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $207 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Fri 30 Oct 2026, 10:00 AM ET.

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Games Under 35 Lean49% chance +107
Total Games Members only Lean52% chance Members
Set 1 Total Games Members only High73% chance Members
Set 1 Game Handicap Members only High64% chance Members
Spread Members only Lean42% chance Members
Moneyline × 1 prop Highup to 78% Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%

Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul last met on Fri 30 Oct 2026. Their next game gets a fresh preview here the moment it is priced. Today's board: every Tennis game priced right now.

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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Games
Under
23
+ 19 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSet 1 Game HandicapThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Tommy PaulSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
OverSet 1 Total GamesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Carlos Alcaraz

Player availability is not tracked for Tennis on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Tommy Paul

Player availability is not tracked for Tennis on this page. We only carry official injury/availability feeds for MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul: Tennis weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture on our data, and player availability isn't tracked for Tennis on this page.

General rule: weather isn't a material factor for this sport in our models — availability of key players is the variable that moves the line.

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

The preview

Written 31 Oct

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Picks

On October 30, 2026 our model has run Carlos Alcaraz at Tommy Paul and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Carlos Alcaraz to win the match (-333), which we rate strong confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz: Carlos Alcaraz to win the match (-333)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tommy Paul faces Carlos Alcaraz at Vienna Open on Friday 30 October 2026. This is a match winner bet, so it lands if Carlos Alcaraz wins the match. It was priced at -333 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $13.00 if it lands. Our model likes this one a lot. Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite to win against Tommy Paul because he has been playing really well lately, winning 80% of his last matches. His serve is strong, winning 70.9% of his first serve points. Although we don't have surface stats, Alcaraz's overall performance shows he is in great shape. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz: Tommy Paul +3.5 Game Handicap (+119)

Odds correct at time of publishing

Tommy Paul faces Carlos Alcaraz in what looks to be a very close match. Both players have their strengths, but with Paul getting a +3.5 head start, he has a nice cushion that could really help him. The odds suggest this is nearly a toss-up, so taking Paul with that extra advantage seems smart. One big risk is that Alcaraz has been performing at a high level lately. If he finds his rhythm, he could easily take control of the match. Still, Paul has home court support and can surprise us on his day. Overall, this bet gives us a fair shot at a good outcome.

That is the full board for this game. Prices can move before you get on, so check the board at your bookmaker. Bet what you can afford to lose. If betting stops being fun, take a break.

Bet Better model desk · Every pick for that day

Betting angles

Markets & form
Total GamesTommy Paul vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
63%model under %
1.75fair price
PickUnder 23Model62.9%Fair1.75Odds-145

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz — Total Games (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Under 23 at -145, fair price 1.75; our model makes it 62.9% (LEAN). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Game HandicapTommy Paul vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
2.28fair price
PickTommy Paul 3.5Model49.6%Fair2.28Odds+119

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz — Game Handicap (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Tommy Paul 3.5 at +119, fair price 2.28; our model makes it 49.6% (LONG-SHOT). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 1 Total GamesTommy Paul vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
82%model under %
1.26fair price
PickUnder 12.5Model81.7%Fair1.26Odds-667

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz — Set 1 Total Games (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Under 12.5 at -667, fair price 1.26; our model makes it 81.7% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Set 1 Game HandicapTommy Paul vs Carlos AlcarazNo line posted
69%model cover %
1.59fair price
PickTommy Paul 2.5Model68.8%Fair1.59Odds-208

Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz — Set 1 Game Handicap (tennis). BetBetter most recently tracked: Tommy Paul 2.5 at -208, fair price 1.59; our model makes it 68.8% (HIGH). BetBetter tracks this market continuously; free-board results appear here once there are enough of them.

Carlos Alcaraz @ Tommy Paul — what the model found

Our model graded 21 betting markets for Carlos Alcaraz at Tommy Paul — 20 on the game itself and 1 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

20
Game markets graded
1
Player bets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 21 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 20 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Carlos Alcaraz @ Tommy Paul — model preview

Tommy Paul v Carlos Alcaraz, 31 October 2026. Top of the list: Carlos Alcaraz to win the match. Our model likes one bet in this game.

On October 30, 2026 our model has run Carlos Alcaraz at Tommy Paul and priced every market it can. Our strongest call is Carlos Alcaraz to win the match (-333), which we rate strong confidence. Every bet below is our own number against the price on the board, in plain English.

Every bet we like in this game

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul in the Tennis. You may also see this matchup written as Alcaraz vs Paul, or as Paul vs Alcaraz. The most recent game between them was Friday 30 October 2026. The model has generated 20 game picks and 1 player prop for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your Tennis betting strategy for this matchup.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul: game facts

Past meetings and recent results

Where they last met

  • 30 Oct 2026Carlos Alcaraz beat Tommy Paul 6-4 7-6 at Vienna Open
  • 6 Sep 2026Carlos Alcaraz beat Tommy Paul 6-4 6-3 6-4 at US Open
  • 25 Jan 2026Carlos Alcaraz beat Tommy Paul 7-6 6-4 7-5 at Australian Open

Carlos Alcaraz: last 5 matches

  1. 8 Nov 2026Wonvs Ben Shelton 7-6 7-5BNP Paribas Masters · Final · Hard
  2. 7 Nov 2026Wonvs Casper Ruud 6-4 6-4BNP Paribas Masters · Semifinals · Hard
  3. 6 Nov 2026Wonvs Taylor Fritz 6-7 7-5 6-3BNP Paribas Masters · Quarterfinals · Hard
  4. 5 Nov 2026Wonvs Matteo Berrettini not playedBNP Paribas Masters · 3rd Round · Hard
  5. 4 Nov 2026Wonvs Alex Michelsen 7-6 6-3BNP Paribas Masters · 2nd Round · Hard

Tommy Paul: last 5 matches

  1. 6 Nov 2026Lostvs Ben Shelton 6-4 4-6 6-3BNP Paribas Masters · Quarterfinals · Hard
  2. 5 Nov 2026Wonvs Quentin Halys 7-6 6-4BNP Paribas Masters · 3rd Round · Hard
  3. 4 Nov 2026Wonvs Daniel Merida Aguilar 6-1 6-1BNP Paribas Masters · 2nd Round · Hard
  4. 3 Nov 2026Wonvs Holger Rune 7-5 6-4BNP Paribas Masters · 1st Round · Hard
  5. 30 Oct 2026Lostvs Carlos Alcaraz 6-4 7-6Vienna Open · Quarterfinals · Hard

Quick answers

Who won the last Tommy Paul vs Carlos Alcaraz match? Carlos Alcaraz won their last meeting 6-4 7-6 at Vienna Open on 30 October 2026.

How have Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul done lately? Carlos Alcaraz won 4 and lost 0 of the last 4 matches we hold. Tommy Paul won 3 and lost 2 of the last 5 matches we hold.

Main-tour matches only. Qualifying and most smaller events are left out.

Head-to-head record

Completed matches · last 8 meetings
Carlos Alcaraz 7–1 across the last 8 meetings
DateWinnerScoreTournamentSurface
30 Oct 2026Carlos Alcaraz6-4 7-6Vienna Open · QuarterfinalsHard
6 Sep 2026Carlos Alcaraz6-4 6-3 6-4US Open · 4th RoundHard
25 Jan 2026Carlos Alcaraz7-6 6-4 7-5Australian Open · 4th RoundHard
3 Jun 2025Carlos Alcaraz6-0 6-1 6-4French Open · QuarterfinalsClay
9 Jul 2024Carlos Alcaraz5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2Wimbledon · QuarterfinalsGrass
17 Aug 2023Carlos Alcaraz7-6 6-7 6-3Western & Southern Financial Group Masters · 3rd RoundHard
12 Aug 2023Tommy Paul6-3 4-6 6-3Canadian Open · QuarterfinalsHard
28 Mar 2023Carlos Alcaraz6-4 6-4Miami Open · 4th RoundHard
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