Study · WTA tennis · 2024 to 2026 · 1,777 matches
The odds
got it right.
WTA favourites were priced to win 69.6% of 1,777 matches. They won 70.5%: 1,253 matches.
1,777 completed matches with closing prices from 3 or more bookmakers, 14 January 2024 to 28 October 2026 · Published 30 October 2026 ·
Free to quote under CC BY 4.0 ·
Download the data (CSV)
WTA2024-26
89.0%
Big Slam favourites won
Favourites
by price.
Every band landed close to its price except one: favourites priced 70-80% won clearly more.
| Favourite's price | Matches | Priced to win | Won | Lost |
|---|
| 50-60% | 479 | 55.6% | 54.1% | 220 |
| 60-70% | 468 | 64.9% | 65.4% | 162 |
| 70-80% | 442 | 74.9% | 79.2% | 92 |
| 80-90% | 289 | 84.7% | 84.8% | 44 |
| 90% and up | 99 | 92.3% | 93.9% | 6 |
| All favourites | 1,777 | 69.6% | 70.5% | 524 |
The 70-80% favourites were expected to win about 331 of 442. They won 350. Resampled 4,000 times, that band's gap lands between 0.5 and 8.1 points. One band out of five looking strong can happen by luck, so we flag it, not sell it.
Slams vs
the tour.
| Matches | Matches | Favourites priced | Favourites won | Gap |
|---|
| Women, Grand Slams (best of 3) | 836 | 71.6% | 72.5% | +0.9 |
| Women, other events (best of 3) | 941 | 67.9% | 68.8% | +0.9 |
Women play best of three sets everywhere, including the Grand Slams, and the gap was the same +0.9 points at both. Big Grand Slam favourites (80% or more) won 89.0% of 236 matches against an 87.0% price.
By
surface.
| Surface | Matches | Favourites priced | Favourites won | Gap |
|---|
| Hard | 1,284 | 69.3% | 69.8% | +0.5 |
| Clay | 340 | 71.2% | 74.4% | +3.2 |
| Grass | 145 | 68.6% | 68.3% | -0.3 |
None of the surface gaps is big enough to call.
6 shock
results.
Players priced at 90% or more played 99 matches and lost 6.
| Date | Favourite | Priced to win | Lost to | Where |
|---|
| 15 January 2025 | Qinwen Zheng | 92.6% | Laura Siegemund | Australian Open, 2nd Round |
| 18 January 2024 | Elena Rybakina | 91.8% | Anna Blinkova | Australian Open, 2nd Round |
| 27 September 2024 | Emma Navarro | 91.4% | Shuai Zhang | China Open, 2nd Round |
| 20 January 2024 | Iga Swiatek | 90.8% | Linda Noskova | Australian Open, 3rd Round |
| 14 January 2025 | Lulu Sun | 90.7% | Danka Kovinic | Australian Open, 1st Round |
| 23 March 2025 | Madison Keys | 90.3% | Alexandra Eala | Miami Open, 3rd Round |
Is it
real?
Across 1,777 matches the WTA favourites came in +0.9 points against their price (95% range -1.1 to 2.9): no proven gap. The closing odds in women's tennis have been an honest guide. Compare the ATP study, where best-of-five Grand Slam favourites did beat their odds.
Today's
tennis matches.
Every match with the chance in plain words and the best price we found. Free.
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How we
measured.
The method
We took the closing match-winner price for completed WTA singles matches at 34 Grand Slam, 1000-level and 500-level tournaments from 14 January 2024 to 28 October 2026 that had prices from at least three bookmakers (about 14 on average). Each bookmaker's two prices were turned into chances, then scaled so the two players add up to 100%, which removes the bookmaker's cut (on average 4.62%). We averaged the bookmakers for each match and matched it to the official result. Retirements and walkovers are left out.
Coverage is uneven: we have more Grand Slam matches than smaller events, and not every match at every tournament.
On the Brier score (the average squared error of a chance; a coin flip scores 0.250), the closing prices scored 0.1904, against the 0.1976 they expected of themselves.
The data file
tennis-wta-favourites-2024-2026.csv has one row per game. Columns: date, tour, tournament, level, surface, round, best_of, favourite, underdog, fav_chance (margin-free closing chance for the favourite), books, fav_won.
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Cite this study
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