Study · Soccer 2026 · MLS and Europe · 31 July to 28 October
MLS loves
a draw.
The closing odds expected about 43 of these 182 MLS games to end level. 58 did: 31.9%, close to one game in three.
430 matches with closing prices from 3 or more bookmakers, 31 July 2026 to 28 October 2026 · Published 30 October 2026 ·
Free to quote under CC BY 4.0 ·
Download the data (CSV)
League
by league.
For each league: how often the odds said a draw would happen, and how often it did. Home and away wins are shown too.
| League | Matches | Draw priced | Draws | Home priced | Home won | Away won |
|---|
| MLS | 182 | 23.6% | 31.9% | 46.4% | 40.7% | 27.5% |
| Serie A | 71 | 26.8% | 18.3% | 38.2% | 39.4% | 42.3% |
| Premier League | 58 | 25.3% | 29.3% | 40.8% | 34.5% | 36.2% |
| La Liga | 51 | 24.2% | 23.5% | 43.2% | 47.1% | 29.4% |
| Ligue 1 | 37 | 25.9% | 24.3% | 41.4% | 45.9% | 29.7% |
| Bundesliga | 24 | 21.1% | 20.8% | 47.3% | 50.0% | 29.2% |
| A-League | 7 | 26.2% | 14.3% | 42.6% | 85.7% | 0.0% |
| All | 430 | 24.6% | 26.7% | 43.5% | 42.1% | 31.2% |
MLS stands out: more draws and fewer home wins (40.7% won against a 46.4% price) than the odds said. Serie A went the other way, with only 13 draws in 71 games. The European leagues have only 24 to 71 games each so far this season, so one weekend can swing them.
European leagues: the 2026-27 season to date. MLS: 31 July to 28 October 2026. A-League: first three rounds only.
When a draw
looked likely.
All leagues together, grouped by how likely the odds thought a draw was.
| Draw price | Matches | Priced | Drew | Draws |
|---|
| Under 22% | 87 | 18.2% | 14.9% | 13 |
| 22-26% | 174 | 24.2% | 28.2% | 49 |
| 26-30% | 144 | 27.5% | 31.2% | 45 |
| 30% and up | 25 | 31.8% | 32.0% | 8 |
Matches where the odds saw a draw as unlikely (under 22%) drew even less often. In the middle bands, draws came in about four points more often than priced. There were 42 one-all draws and 27 goalless ones.
Favourites
held up.
Teams priced at 70% or more played 25 matches and failed to win 5:
| Date | Favourite | Priced to win | Result | Final |
|---|
| 10 October 2026 | Bayern Munich (away) | 80.9% | Draw | Augsburg 2-2 Bayern Munich |
| 27 September 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC (home) | 74.3% | Draw | Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3-3 D.C. United |
| 13 September 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC (home) | 74.0% | Lost | Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1-2 Austin FC |
| 6 September 2026 | Inter Miami CF (home) | 71.5% | Draw | Inter Miami CF 2-2 Atlanta United FC |
| 23 October 2026 | VfB Stuttgart (home) | 71.0% | Lost | VfB Stuttgart 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach |
Is it
real?
This is a small sample, and we say so plainly. The MLS draw gap is 8.3 points; resampled 4,000 times it lands between 1.3 and 15.0 points, 95 times in 100, so it is above zero but the true size could be much smaller. Across all 430 matches, draws were +2.2 points against their price (range -1.8 to 6.4): not proven. We will update this page as the season runs.
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How we
measured.
The method
We took the closing 1X2 price (home, draw, away) for every match in these leagues from 31 July 2026 to 28 October 2026 that had prices from at least three bookmakers (about 8 on average). Each bookmaker's three prices were turned into chances, then scaled so they add up to 100%, which removes the bookmaker's cut (on average 6.23%). We averaged the bookmakers for each match and matched it to the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
On the Brier score for the draw alone (the average squared error of a chance), the closing prices scored 0.1933.
The data file
soccer-draws-2026.csv has one row per game. Columns: date, league, home, away, home_chance, draw_chance, away_chance (margin-free closing chances), books, home_goals, away_goals, result (H, D or A).
Free to use, share and adapt under CC BY 4.0. Please credit “Bet Better (betbetter.world)” and link to this page.
Cite this study
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