Study · NFL · 2021 to 2026
Wind takes points.
Cold mostly doesn't.
At 15 mph of wind or more, NFL games scored about 4 points less. The closing total came down only about 1.
997 open-air games, September 2021 to October 2026 · Published 1 November 2026 · Free to quote under
CC BY 4.0 ·
Download the data (CSV)
The closing total is the last over/under number before kickoff. It is the betting market's guess at how many points a game will have.
Each table below shows how the real score compared with that number.
This week's stadium forecasts are on our NFL weather page.
Wind is
the big one.
Below 10 mph, wind did nothing you can see. From 15 mph up, scoring dropped. Games at 15 mph or more averaged 40.3 points against
44.7 in calmer air. That is 4.4 fewer, and the likely range is 1.5 to 7.3 fewer, so this one is not just noise.
| Wind | Games | Avg points | Closing total | Points vs total | Likely range | Under - Over |
|---|
| 0 to 4 mph | 205 | 45.8 | 44.5 | +1.2 | -0.6 to +3.1 | 106 - 97 |
| 5 to 9 mph | 361 | 45.2 | 44.2 | +0.9 | -0.4 to +2.3 | 161 - 196 |
| 10 to 14 mph | 203 | 42.9 | 43.6 | -0.7 | -2.4 to +1.0 | 116 - 85 |
| 15 to 19 mph | 74 | 39.8 | 43.4 | -3.6 | -6.2 to -1.0 | 46 - 26 |
| 20 mph and up | 20 | 42.4 | 42.1 | +0.2 | -5.2 to +6.1 | 11 - 9 |
Points vs total = final points minus the closing total. Likely range = 95 times in 100 when we resample the games.
If the range includes zero, we can't tell the result from luck. Figures are rounded.
The 20 mph row looks odd, but it is only 20 games, and three shootouts of 64 points or more pull it up. Leave those three out and the other 17 averaged
37.3 points. We would not read anything into that row alone.
The closing total
moved less.
Windy games had an average closing total of 43.1, against 44.2 in calmer games. So the market took off about 1 point while scores fell by more than 4.
Windy games finished 2.8 points under the total on average (likely range 0.4 to 5.1 under), with 57 unders, 35 overs and 2 landing exactly on the number.
To be fair to the market, some teams just score less. So we also compared each game with what those two teams usually do in their other games that season.
Against that normal, the total was cut 1.4 points more than in calmer games, and scoring fell 4.8 points more.
| Wind | Games | Closing total vs normal | Points vs normal |
|---|
| 0 to 4 mph | 205 | -0.2 | +0.6 |
| 5 to 9 mph | 361 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 10 to 14 mph | 203 | -0.8 | -2.0 |
| 15 to 19 mph | 74 | -1.4 | -5.8 |
| 20 mph and up | 20 | -3.4 | -2.9 |
Normal = the average of both teams' other games that season. Open-air games sit a little below normal on their own, so read the rows against each other.
But the gap
has closed.
Here is the catch. Nearly all of that gap to the total came from 2021 to 2023: 57 windy games, 4.9 points under on average, 39 unders and 16 overs. From 2024 on it has been
37 windy games, 0.4 points over on average, 18 unders and 19 overs.
Windy games still scored less than normal in those later seasons, by 3.1 points. And the total was cut more, 2.4 points against 1.5.
The market may have caught up, or this may be chance. We can't tell which from 37 games. It is not a betting system.
Cold on its own
did very little.
Below freezing, games averaged 44.0 points. Games at 45 F or warmer averaged 44.7. That gap of 0.7 is well inside the noise: the likely range runs from 3.8 fewer to 2.4 more.
In every temperature band, scores landed within about 1 point of the closing total, and no band's range rules out zero.
| Temperature | Games | Avg points | Closing total | Points vs total | Likely range | Under - Over |
|---|
| Below freezing (under 32 F) | 66 | 44.0 | 43.5 | +0.5 | -2.4 to +3.3 | 30 - 34 |
| 32 to 44 F | 155 | 42.8 | 43.1 | -0.3 | -2.5 to +1.9 | 81 - 73 |
| 45 to 59 F | 249 | 43.8 | 43.9 | -0.1 | -1.8 to +1.5 | 129 - 115 |
| 60 to 74 F | 225 | 45.0 | 44.4 | +0.7 | -1.0 to +2.3 | 113 - 110 |
| 75 F and up | 169 | 45.5 | 44.9 | +0.6 | -1.2 to +2.4 | 87 - 82 |
Take out the windy ones and the 55 freezing games with wind under 15 mph look just like mild games. Cold games feel like low scorers, but on this data the cold is not the reason.
The market still shaved about 1 point off the total in those freezing, calmer games.
Rain and snow:
less clear.
Game records don't say if it rained, so here we use the weather forecast at the stadium, made 11 to 16 hours before kickoff, for the four hours from kickoff.
That covers 654 games from 2021 to 2024. It is what was forecast, not what fell.
| Forecast | Games | Avg points | Closing total | Points vs total | Likely range | Under - Over |
|---|
| Dry forecast (under 0.25 mm) | 533 | 44.3 | 44.0 | +0.4 | -0.7 to +1.4 | 269 - 259 |
| Some rain (0.25 to 2.5 mm) | 81 | 41.0 | 43.4 | -2.4 | -5.0 to +0.4 | 52 - 27 |
| Steady rain (2.5 mm and up) | 33 | 41.8 | 42.1 | -0.4 | -5.2 to +4.6 | 18 - 15 |
| Snow likely (wet and 34 F or colder) | 7 | 38.9 | 40.7 | -1.9 | -6.7 to +3.1 | 4 - 2 |
With rain in the forecast (114 games), teams scored 41.2 points against 44.3 on dry forecasts, and the total came down about 1.
But wet games are often windy too. Take out games at 15 mph or more and the rain effect shrinks to about 2 points against normal, with a likely range from 5.2 fewer to 1.6 more.
That is not clear of noise. Against the closing total, rain games came in 1.8 points under, and that range includes zero too.
Snow is too rare to say anything. We only have 7 games, and that is a forecast of snow, based on wet weather at 34 F or colder.
The windiest
games.
| Game | Date | Wind | Temp | Final | Total |
|---|
| New England at Buffalo | 6 Dec 2021 | 27 mph | 36 F | 14-10 | 40 |
| New Orleans at Cleveland | 24 Dec 2022 | 27 mph | 6 F | 17-10 | 32 |
| Denver at Cleveland | 21 Oct 2021 | 27 mph | 59 F | 14-17 | 40.5 |
| Green Bay at Philadelphia | 27 Nov 2022 | 24 mph | 62 F | 33-40 | 46 |
| Arizona at Cleveland | 17 Oct 2021 | 23 mph | 58 F | 37-14 | 48 |
Final shows the away score first. One game has a 44 mph reading in the records (San Francisco at Philadelphia, 3 December 2023). The forecast for that game was about 3 mph, so we treat it as a typing error and left it out of the wind tables.
What this
means.
Check the wind first. At 15 mph or more, expect a lower-scoring game. For fantasy, that is the weather number worth looking at.
Don't fear the cold alone. A freezing game with light wind scored about the same as a mild one.
Rain and snow are not settled. Rain may take a little off, mostly when it comes with wind. Snow games are too few to judge.
No promises. The market already moves the total for bad weather, and since 2024 windy games have split evenly against it. One game can go any way.
This week's
NFL weather.
Wind, rain and cold for every outdoor game this week. Free.
See NFL weather
More on NFL at Bet Better: free NFL picks, NFL prop bets, NFL parlays, NFL odds, how to bet on NFL.
How we
measured.
The method
Games. Every NFL regular-season and playoff game from 9 September 2021 to 29 October 2026 at an open-air US stadium: 997 games (947 regular season, 50 playoffs).
Overtime points count. Left out: 478 games in domes or under closed roofs (they averaged 47.5 points against a 46.0 total), 37 games marked as roof open,
and 20 open-air games outside the US. Roof status comes from the game records for each game.
Wind and temperature. The reading in the game record, from the nflverse schedule data. 863 of the 997 games have a wind reading and 864 have a temperature.
Most of the gaps are the early weeks of 2022, parts of 2023 and 2026 games after 4 October, so they are about when the records were kept, not about the weather. The wind tables also leave out the one 44 mph game.
Rain and snow. NOAA's GFS forecast as issued, read at the stadium from the dynamical.org archive (CC BY 4.0). 654 of the 737 open-air games from 2021 to 2024.
Dry = under 0.25 mm in the four hours from kickoff. Snow likely = 0.25 mm or more with a forecast of 34 F or colder.
Closing total. The nflverse closing line. We checked it against our own record of sportsbook closing lines on 994 games: it was within 1 point of the middle book on 99.2% of them.
Likely ranges. We resampled the games 4,000 times and kept the middle 95 in 100. We looked at many bands, so one band clearing zero by a little could still be chance.
The data file
nfl-weather-scoring-2021-2026.csv has one row per open-air game (997 rows). Columns: date, season, week, game_type, home, away, stadium, wind_mph, temp_f,
rain_forecast_mm, snow_likely, home_score, away_score, total_points, closing_total, points_vs_close. A blank means we have no reading.
Cite this study
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