On Sunday 4 October 2026, Sydney Roosters play Newcastle Knights in the NRL. Our model likes 4 bets here. The one it likes most is Sydney Roosters -9.5 on the Line, priced at +109 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Sydney Roosters -9.5 on the Line (+109)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
On Sunday 4 October 2026, Sydney Roosters host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Sydney Roosters -9.5 Line. On this line Sydney Roosters give up 9.5 points before the game starts, so they have to win by more than 9.5. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at +109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.90 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +109 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.90 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Over 43.5 Total Points (+105)
Odds available at TAB at time of publishing
On Sunday 4 October 2026, Sydney Roosters host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Over 43.5 Total Points. This wins if the two sides score more than 43.5 points between them. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at +105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.50 if it lands. That price was showing at TAB. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +105 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $20.50 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. This one is priced as an outside chance. Our model has this as a long shot, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Harrison Graham to Score a Try (+1200)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
On Sunday 4 October 2026, Sydney Roosters host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Harrison Graham Anytime Try Scorer. This wins if Harrison Graham scores a try at any point in the game. It was priced at +1200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $130 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +1200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $130 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Dylan Lucas Over 1.5 Tries (+3300)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
On Sunday 4 October 2026, Sydney Roosters host Newcastle Knights in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Dylan Lucas Over 1.5 Tries. This wins if Dylan Lucas scores at least 2 tries. It was priced at +3300 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $340 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +3300 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $340 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads Sydney Roosters v Newcastle Knights. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.