New Zealand Warriors v Dolphins, 12 September 2026. Top of the list: Dolphins +4.5 on the Line. Our model likes 3 bets in this game.
On Saturday 12 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors play Dolphins in the NRL. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Dolphins +4.5 on the Line, priced at -111 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.
Dolphins +4.5 on the Line (-111)
Odds available at Neds at time of publishing
On Saturday 12 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors host Dolphins in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Dolphins 4.5 Line. On this line Dolphins start with 4.5 points in hand, so they can lose by less than that and this still wins. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. That price was showing at Neds. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Under 47.5 Total Points (-111)
Odds available at Neds at time of publishing
On Saturday 12 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors host Dolphins in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Under 47.5 Total Points. This wins if the two sides score fewer than 47.5 points between them. This is one of the bookmaker's alternate lines, not the main one, so the price is different. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. That price was showing at Neds. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -111 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.00 if it lands. This is an alternate line, so it is not the main number on the board and the price moves with it. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Our model leans this way without loving it. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
Thomas Flegler to Score a Try (+1200)
Odds available at Sportsbet at time of publishing
On Saturday 12 September 2026, New Zealand Warriors host Dolphins in the NRL. The bet we are looking at is Thomas Flegler Anytime Try Scorer. This wins if Thomas Flegler scores a try at any point in the game. It was priced at +1200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $130 if it lands. That price was showing at Sportsbet. Our model has this one as a long shot, so keep the bet small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at +1200 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $130 if it lands. This is a long shot at the price, so keep the stake small. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.
That is how our model reads New Zealand Warriors v Dolphins. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.
🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
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