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Model picks & player props
Tampa Bay Lightning
VS
Pittsburgh Penguins

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins Picks & Predictions

Model updated Aug 30, 9:00PM UTC

We checked every price on this game against our own numbers. The green ones are the bets worth more than they should be.

NHL
PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Indoor
Wed 14 Jan 2026, 12:00AM
3
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first
Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline -143

The model graded 3 markets for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins (NHL) and this is the one it backs hardest — HIGH confidence. A $100 bet returns about $170 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Wed 14 Jan 2026, 12:00AM at PPG Paints Arena.

Our confidenceHigh
Chance to win65.5%
The price says58.8%
Best price-143
The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Moneyline Tampa Bay Lightning High65% chance -143
Spread High75% chance —
Puck Lines High98% chance —
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
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Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Moneyline
Tampa Bay Lightning
-143
+ 2 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
Tampa Bay LightningMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PenguinsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Pittsburgh PenguinsPuck LinesThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Which price is actually worth taking?

Pro shows you, in plain English, how far each price is off — and how much to put on it. No maths needed on your side.

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Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Pontus Holmberg RWOut

Pittsburgh Penguins

No players are currently listed out or questionable for this team.

Availability updated May 5, 4:10PM UTC — some NHL rows may be stale between updates. · refreshed roughly every 4 hours.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and watch the availability of Pontus Holmberg.
FactorThis fixture
Availability1 listed out or questionable (see Who's out above)

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

See the weather- and injury-adjusted projected line and the model's with/without delta for this fixture. 🔒 Unlock with Pro

Betting angles

Markets & form
MoneylineModel leans Tampa Bay LightningNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline: model lean and both sides' win form.

Puck LinePittsburgh Penguins +1.5No line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Pittsburgh Penguins puck-line (spread) model lean and cover form.

Total GoalsGame totalNo line posted

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Pittsburgh Penguins total-goals model lean and scoring trends (the free board has not settled enough of these yet).

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Pittsburgh Penguins — what the model found

Our model graded 3 betting markets for Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins — 3 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

3
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 3 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 2 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins — recent results

Pittsburgh Penguins have won 2 of their last 5 games; Tampa Bay Lightning have won 2 of their last 5.

Pittsburgh Penguins — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L0–1PHIAway
W3–2PHIHome
W4–2PHIAway
L2–5PHIAway
L0–3PHIHome
Tampa Bay Lightning — last 5
ResultScoreOpponentWhere
L1–2MTLHome
W1–0MTLAway
L2–3MTLHome
W3–2MTLAway
L2–3MTLAway

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins — recent meetings

These two have met 2 times recently: Pittsburgh Penguins won 0, Tampa Bay Lightning won 2.

DatePittsburgh PenguinsTampa Bay LightningWinner
Apr 236Tampa Bay Lightning
Jan 1412Tampa Bay Lightning

Who’s out or in doubt

1 player is listed as out or in doubt for this game.

Tampa Bay Lightning
PlayerStatus
Pontus Holmberg RWOUT

The full availability report — with what each missing player means for the bets — is further down this page.

About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for Tampa Bay Lightning vs Pittsburgh Penguins in the NHL. You may also see this matchup written as Lightning vs Penguins, or as Penguins vs Lightning. The most recent game between them was Wednesday 14 January 2026 at PPG Paints Arena. The model has generated 3 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NHL betting strategy for this matchup.

Head-to-head record

Final scores · 2 meetings on record
Tampa Bay Lightning 2–0 across the last 2 meetings
DateGameScoreWinner
2 Apr 2026Pittsburgh Penguins @ Tampa Bay Lightning6–3Tampa Bay Lightning
14 Jan 2026Tampa Bay Lightning @ Pittsburgh Penguins1–2Tampa Bay Lightning
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