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NFL

Mack Hollins

NE

Value call

Mack Hollins has one live pick today: under 43.5 receiving yards that pays $192 on $100 — every past pick on this player is graded below.

Our call
LEAN
How often this wins
56 in 100
Predicted
35.4 receiving yards
See the numbers

For the numbers: our chance 56.3% · before adjusting for past results 70.4% · the book's price implies 52.1% · gap +4.2%.

Latest Model PickFree
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Buffalo · Indoor
Sun 4 Oct, 1:00 PM ET
Mack Hollins
under 43.5 receiving yards
Receiving Yards Under 43.5 -109 (1.92) · $100→$192
Value call
LEANWins about 56 times in 100, by our numbers
You bet$10 If it wins$19.20 Odds-109
See why we picked it
Answer
The latest Bet Better model pick for Mack Hollins is Under 43.5 on Receiving Yards.
On Receiving Yards, our numbers say this bet wins about 56 times in 100 — more often than the price suggests. For the numbers: our chance 56%, the price says 52%. It updates daily; availability depends on the current NFL schedule.
Model updated Oct 15, 12:46AM UTC
The recordWhen our formula calls nfl alternate totals h1 unders: +$6,699 at $100 flat
Today’s picks post before the games start.logged in public before tip-offSee the picks page
No injury designation
No current injury or availability flag for this player in the feed.
Every pick is graded and published — see the full verified results, win and loss. View results →

Every Bet on This Player, Graded

See every number
MarketModelCalibratedImpliedFair OddsEdge
Receiving Yards70.4%56.3%52.1%2.03+18.3%

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AI Analysis

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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots: Mack Hollins Under 43.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots both have defenses that can make it tough for receivers to rack up big yards. Mack Hollins may struggle to get open against the Bills, who gave up an average of just 170 yards through the air last season. The Patriots also don't allow too many yards, giving up about 206 through the air. With both teams playing strong defense, it feels like a good chance for Hollins to stay under 43.5 receiving yards. One risk here is that the game could be very close, and if the Patriots need to pass more in the second half, Hollins might get more opportunities. Still, the numbers suggest it's likely he won't hit that yard total. Betting on the under feels like a smart move in this matchup.

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Pick History & Track Record

Betting angles

Markets & form
Receptions9 lines trackedNo line posted
3.5typical line · receptions
line range3.5–3.5tips tracked9

Mack Hollins's NFL receptions prop has been priced 9 times, typically around a 3.5 receptions line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

Receiving Yards14 lines trackedNo line posted
43.5typical line · receiving yds
line range35.5–44.5tips tracked14

Mack Hollins's NFL receiving yards prop has been priced 14 times, typically around a 43.5 receiving yds line. Realised game-by-game hit rates are not yet published for this market.

DateMatchupMarketLinePickOdds (US)Result
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards 43.5 Under -109 ✗ MISS
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards 44.5 Under -115 ✗ MISS
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receiving Yards 42.5 Under -111 ✗ MISS
04 Oct 26 New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Receptions — — — Pending
20 Sep 26 Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots Receiving Yards — — — Pending
20 Sep 26 Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots Receiving Yards — — — Pending

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About This Player

Mack Hollins (NE) is tracked by the Bet Better model for NFL player prop betting. The latest model pick for Mack Hollins is Under 43.5 on Receiving Yards. The model identifies a strong positive edge of +18.3% on this pick. Their next game is New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills on Sunday 4 October at Buffalo. Review the full pick history and AI analysis above to inform your NFL betting strategy.

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