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Model picks & player props
NCAAF
Sat 14 Nov 2026, 3:00 PM ET
New Mexico State Aggies
3-5 · 1-3 awayLWLWL
VS
Missouri State Bears
3-6 · 3-1 at homeLWLWL
Our model's predicted score: Missouri State Bears 24.6 – New Mexico State Aggies 20.3

New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears Prediction & Picks · Sat 14 Nov

Model updated Nov 8, 6:02PM UTC

Our model graded 5 markets for New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears and backs Under 50.5 hardest, a lean, and $100 on it returns about $191.

5
Game markets graded
0
Props graded
The model's one call for this gamethe prediction, first Free
Under 50.5 total points
Under 50.5 Total Points
You bet$10 If it wins$19.09Best price-110
Our confidenceLean
Chance to win49.3%
The price says50.0%

The model graded 5 markets for New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears (NCAAF) and this is the one it backs hardest — a lean, not a lock. A $100 bet returns about $191 if it lands. This one is free — every other market and all player props are Pro. Tip-off Sat 14 Nov 2026, 3:00 PM ET.

Saturday 14 November 2026: New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears

This game's bets

The rest of this game's boardgraded market by market
Total Points Under 50.5 Lean49% chance -110
Total Points Members only Lean49% chance Members
Spread Members only Lean49% chance Members
Moneyline Members only Lean49% chance Members
High = 60%+ chance to win · Lean = 40–60% · Long-shot = under 40%
Missouri State Bears are the model's favourite to beat New Mexico State Aggies, with a 60% chance to win. Predicted score: Missouri State Bears 24.6 – New Mexico State Aggies 20.3. Kick-off Sat 14 Nov, 3:00 PM ET. Best bet: Under 50.5 at -110.
How they've been scoring this season
New Mexico State AggiesMissouri State Bears
Won-lost3-53-6
Points scored per game21.523.9
Points allowed per game25.330.0
On the road / at home1-3 away3-1 at home
Last 5 gamesLWLWLLWLWL
Their games average 50.3 total points this season.
From the 8 New Mexico State Aggies and 9 Missouri State Bears games on our books this season.
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How the price moved

When prices opened: Bears about 5 in 10 to win. Now: about 5 in 10. About where it opened.

Best price and how much the bookies keep

Who wins
TeamMarket's chanceFair priceBest price
Aggiesabout 5 in 10$2.15 (+115)$2.10 (+110)
Bearsabout 5 in 10$1.87 (-115)$1.80 (-125)

On this game the bookies keep about $4.40 of every $100 bet on who wins, going by the 14 books we check.

All NCAAF odds this week →

Game picks

GOOD PRICE in green
Total Points
Under
50.5
+ 4 more markets
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Calibrated model vs market

Our chance vs the price, market by market
PickMarketModel lean
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
UnderTotal PointsThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Missouri State BearsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Missouri State BearsMoneylineThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro
Missouri State BearsSpreadThe model likes this price 🔒 Unlock with Pro

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Market intelligence for this game

Line move · best book · closing line
The market drifted away from New Mexico State Aggies on this game.

Line movement

▼ moved toward New Mexico State Aggies
Exact move size 🔒 Pro

Best price right now

Polymarket
on New Mexico State Aggies
Best-price gain 🔒 Pro
Derived from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction, the best-book name and our derived value only, never a raw per-book odds board.

Injuries & who's out

Injuries & availability

New Mexico State Aggies

No players are currently listed out or questionable for this team.

Missouri State Bears

No players are currently listed out or questionable for this team.

Weather & injury impact for this fixture

Conditions · who's out · how it moves the number
For New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears: Weather isn't a tracked factor for this fixture, and no players are currently listed out or questionable.
FactorThis fixture
AvailabilityNone currently listed out or questionable

Pro — weather & injury-adjusted view

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The preview

Written 9 Nov

Missouri State Bears vs New Mexico State Aggies Prediction & Picks

On Saturday 14 November 2026, Missouri State Bears play New Mexico State Aggies in college football. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 50.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 50.5 Total Points (-110)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Saturday 14 November 2026, Missouri State Bears host New Mexico State Aggies in college football. The bet we are looking at is Under 50.5 Total Points. This wins if the two sides score fewer than 50.5 points between them. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Missouri State Bears -1 on the Line (-114)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Saturday 14 November 2026, Missouri State Bears host New Mexico State Aggies in college football. The bet we are looking at is Missouri State Bears -1 Point Spread. On this line Missouri State Bears give up 1 points before the game starts, so they have to win by more than 1. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.77 if it lands. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -114 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $18.77 if it lands. The number next to the team is the handicap, and that team's score is adjusted by it before the bet is settled. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

Missouri State Bears to Win (-135)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Saturday 14 November 2026, Missouri State Bears host New Mexico State Aggies in college football. The bet we are looking at is Missouri State Bears Moneyline. This one only needs Missouri State Bears to win the game. It was priced at -130 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.69 if it lands. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -135 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $17.40 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

That is how our model reads Missouri State Bears v New Mexico State Aggies. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back anything. And if a game does not feel right to you, the strongest move is to skip it -- there is another one tomorrow.

Bet Better model desk · Read the full preview

New Mexico State Aggies @ Missouri State Bears — what the model found

Our model graded 5 betting markets for New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears — 5 on the game itself and 0 on individual players. One pick is free on this page.

5
Game markets graded

The model checked every betting market for this game and graded 5 of them. One pick is free on this page — the one the model likes most. Scroll down to see it.

🔒 The other 4 graded calls for this game — with how much to bet on each — are for members.
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New Mexico State Aggies @ Missouri State Bears — where the money went

Since betting opened on New Mexico State Aggies at Missouri State Bears, the market has moved away from New Mexico State Aggies across the main game markets.

BetWhat the money did
Spread — New Mexico State Aggies 2.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Missouri State Bears -2.5▲ Money came for this
Moneyline — New Mexico State Aggies▼ Money drifted off this
Moneyline — Missouri State Bears▲ Money came for this
Spread — New Mexico State Aggies 1.5▼ Money drifted off this
Spread — Missouri State Bears -1.5▲ Money came for this
🔒 Exact prices and how far each line moved are for members. Unlock →
Built from a multi-book scan — we publish the direction the market moved, never a raw per-book odds board.

New Mexico State Aggies @ Missouri State Bears — model preview

Missouri State Bears v New Mexico State Aggies, 14 November 2026. Top of the list: Under 50.5 Total Points. Our model likes 3 bets in this game.

On Saturday 14 November 2026, Missouri State Bears play New Mexico State Aggies in college football. Our model likes 3 bets here. The one it likes most is Under 50.5 Total Points, priced at -110 when we wrote this. Here is the thinking behind each pick, in plain English.

Under 50.5 Total Points (-110)

Odds correct at time of publishing

On Saturday 14 November 2026, Missouri State Bears host New Mexico State Aggies in college football. The bet we are looking at is Under 50.5 Total Points. This wins if the two sides score fewer than 50.5 points between them. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. That price was showing at DraftKings. Our model leans this way, without being sure. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move. It was priced at -110 when we wrote this, so a $10 bet returns $19.09 if it lands. The bookmakers have this as a slight favourite. Prices move, so check the price at your bookmaker before you back it. And if this one does not feel right to you, skipping it is a perfectly good move.

🔒 The other 2 write-ups for this game — with how much to bet on each — are Pro.
Unlock the full write-up
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About this matchup

How we read the game

This page tracks the Bet Better model's pick history and predictions for New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears in the NCAAF. You may also see this matchup written as Aggies vs Bears, or as Bears vs Aggies. The next scheduled game is Saturday 14 November 2026. The model has generated 5 game picks for this matchup. Review the picks and historical data above to guide your NCAAF betting strategy for this matchup.

New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears: game facts

When it starts and how they have been going

New Mexico State Aggies play Missouri State Bears on Saturday 14 November 2026. Kick-off is 3:00 PM ET. It is a college football game.

New Mexico State Aggies: last 5 results

  1. 28 Oct 2026Lostvs Jacksonville State Gamecocks 0-24
  2. 21 Oct 2026Wonat Sam Houston Bearkats 30-24
  3. 7 Oct 2026Lostat Florida International Panthers 3-22
  4. 1 Oct 2026Wonvs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 34-13
  5. 26 Sep 2026Lostvs New Mexico Lobos 18-42

Missouri State Bears: last 5 results

  1. 7 Nov 2026Lostat Florida International Panthers 20-23
  2. 27 Oct 2026Wonvs Sam Houston Bearkats 24-3
  3. 20 Oct 2026Lostat Delaware Blue Hens 38-61
  4. 14 Oct 2026Wonvs Kennesaw State Owls 24-21
  5. 8 Oct 2026Lostat Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 13-34

Quick answers

When is New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears? New Mexico State Aggies vs Missouri State Bears is on Saturday 14 November 2026. Kick-off is 3:00 PM ET.

How have New Mexico State Aggies and Missouri State Bears done lately? New Mexico State Aggies won 2 and lost 3 of the last 5 results we hold. Missouri State Bears won 2 and lost 3 of the last 5 results we hold.

From the final scores we hold. Newest game first.

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